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000
FXUS63 KAPX 111751
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
151 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread soaking rain moves in today, lasting into Friday.

- Strong wind gusts up to 40-50 mph possible Friday into Friday
  night.

- Rain chances continue at times into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Dynamic system to our southwest...with negatively tilted trough axis
lifting northeastward toward the OH Valley...and additional energy
diving southeastward through the northern and central Plains.
Atmosphere continues to saturate this morning across the region, per
airport obs beginning to pick up some rain across the area, though
radar returns have been struggling to hit the ground through a stout
dry layer through about 650mb, per the morning sounding here. Sharp
pv strand stretching through the Upper Midwest into Ontario this
morning along deformation axis...with recent radar returns over WI
suggesting that forcing is beginning to strengthen along this axis
from the Keweenaw down through central WI with a developing surface
low over the western UP. Will expect rain to continue to creep
northward through the rest of the afternoon...and for now, expecting
primary focus of heaviest rain along the Lake Huron coast...though
do wonder if a secondary axis of heavier rain could develop over NW
Lower toward I-75...noting the strengthening thermal gradient at
500mb. Still looking for 0.5-1" into this evening along the Lake
Huron coast in particular, but will drill deeper into this shortly.
Have elected to upgrade remaining gale watches for the Lake Huron
nearshores to gale warnings with this update to the forecast
package, with further tweaking possible for the afternoon
package.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Strong longwave troughing over the Mississippi Valley will progress
over the southeast CONUS this morning and pivot up the Atlantic
coast into tonight. An impressive coupled jet aloft will provide
strong forcing aloft and quickly deepen the associated cyclone as it
swings north into the Great Lakes today.

Forecast Details:

Rain will spread across northern Michigan from south to north this
morning through this afternoon as the aforementioned system works
into the region. Forecast soundings display abundant moisture
through the profile to support efficient rainfall at times,
especially during the afternoon and evening. Current confidence lies
in a slightly further east track than in past forecast cycles,
resulting in the best chances for areas seeing 1" or more of
rainfall by 12Z Friday coming east of Leelanau/Benzie/Manistee
counties. Rainfall amounts exceeding 1" appear unlikely along the
Lake Michigan shoreline at this time. On the other hand, those along
the Lake Huron shoreline have the highest potential to see amounts
of 1.5" or more by Friday morning. Winds also look to steadily
increase out of the east-northeast through the afternoon, gusting to
25-35 mph at times through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel split flow pattern spanned across North America will
continue to keep chaotic flow and active weather at times for the
Great Lakes Region. Southern branch flow with embedded shortwave
troughing currently over the Ark-La-Tex region quickly progresses to
the midwest while deepening with surface low pressure.

Rain will first commence today but continue to impact the CWA
through the first half of the short term period. Rainfall is set
to continue Friday along with strong gusty winds as a deepening
pressure gradient moves across the CWA. Ridging currently over
the Pacific Northwest will quickly push aformentioned troughing
northward and building high pressure this Saturday.


Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Additional precipitation will carry into the short term as
deepening surface low pressure tracks through Michigan. QPF will
be lower compared to Thursday as a general quarter inch or less
can be expected. Most impactful weather will be the continued
strong wind gusts. Northwest flow will strengthen gusts to 40-50
mph for most parts of the CWA (especially for locations around
the Michigan and Huron Shorelines of northern lower) through
evening hours of Friday.

Aformentioned midlevel riding over the Pacific Northwest will
move into the Great Lakes region on Saturday and build high
pressure. Weather will remain quiet for the rest of the short
term period but lingering gusty winds (especially east of I-75)
will persist during the daytime as low pressure departs to
Hudson Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Forecast/Key Messages:

Embedded disturbance riding along aformentioned ridging will
bring slight chances of showers to the Great Lakes region this
Sunday. Little to no measurable amounts are expected due to the
disorganization and lack of moisture associated with it. Weather
remain quiet for the CWA as surface high pressure continues
until another potential system moves into the Midwest as soon as
the Tuesday night/Wednesday timeframe. Too early to message
details on this system, be continuing the monitor rain and
possibly even thunderstorm chances for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Rain to overspread the area through the rest of the
afternoon/evening. Expect cigs in most areas around 2-4kft...though
PLN could drop to LIFR cigs overnight. Visbys most critical to
flight categories...with visbys expected to drop into IFR; some LIFR
visbys possible in heaviest rain. Winds shift from NE to N/NNW this
evening and around to NW tonight...dramatically strengthening to 25-
35kts toward 9-12z and will stay strong through much of Friday.
Expecting gusts to 35-45kts...with 50+kt gusts possible Friday, esp
near KAPN. Strong probability of 50kt LLJ around 1-2kft starting
after 6z, esp toward 10z and later Friday. For now...think these
strong winds will mix down periodically, and have described this in
TAFs as gusts of 35-45kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory winds and waves are expected to spread across
most northern Lake Michigan and Lake Huron nearshore waters by late
afternoon/early evening, eventually setting in over Whitefish Bay
tonight. Widespread gales are expected by Friday morning across all
nearshore waters and are expected to last into Friday evening over
Lake Michigan and Saturday morning over Lake Huron. Storm force wind
gusts cannot be ruled out at times.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345-
     346-349.
     Gale Warning from 5 AM Friday to 10 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ347-
     348.
     Gale Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning from 5 AM Friday to midnight EDT Friday night for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FEF
NEAR TERM...DJC
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...FEF
MARINE...DJC