507
FNUS53 KAPX 130854
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
454 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

...Shower and thunderstorm chances in southern areas into tonight...

.DISCUSSION...A cold front will slow as it moves across lower
Michigan. Stray early morning showers will wane, but showers will
start to regenerate as soon as late morning. Shower and
thunderstorm chances increase through the afternoon into early
evening. Most of the showers will be south of a line from Traverse
City to Alpena. To the north, no precipitation is expected. Rain
chances gradually diminish through tonight.

Light south winds ahead of the front, will become northerly behind
it. Humidity values will be higher than yesterday. Winds will be
light on Tuesday.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-132200-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
454 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler...except 6 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (357).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler...except 8 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier...except 11 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (31).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....60-65...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 3 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (429).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-132200-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
454 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (331).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.26 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (48).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.14 in .

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....62-67...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (410).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-132200-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
454 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....67-72...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the north
                    in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (211).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the north around
                    9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....37-42.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler...except 7 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (36).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68...except around 51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent...except 44-49 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier...except 8 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (456).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-132200-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
454 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Chance of rain showers after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....68-73...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler...except 8 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (279).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....38-43.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler...except 6 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........73-78 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 17 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (48).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....64-69...except 54-59 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (522).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-132200-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
454 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 1200, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (552).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.24 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.17 in .

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (467).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. LIGHT WINDS.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. LIGHT WINDS.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

JZ