512
AXNT20 KNHC 010554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed May 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 05N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 03N35W and to 03N50W. Scattered
moderate to
isolated strong convection is active from 03N to 06N between 15W
and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Isolated thunderstorms is noted over the Florida Straits just
west of a trough that extends from Cuba to Miami, FL. High
pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting gentle to
moderate SE winds across the Gulf, except west of the Yucatan
Peninsula where locally fresh NE winds are noted. 3 to 5 ft
combined seas are noted across the basin. Light to moderate
smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico is creating
hazy conditions for much of the southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures in Texas and Mexico will support fresh to strong
pulsing winds in the western half of the Gulf Wed night into the
weekend. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in the eastern half
of the basin. Winds will pulse to strong speeds nightly near and
to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects induced by
a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1021 mb high pressure north of the area supports moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds over much of the Caribbean basin.
Fresh to strong winds are pulsing in the offshore waters of
southern Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage noted in a
recent scatterometer pass. The pass also noted mainly gentle
winds over the NW Caribbean Sea. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft
across the eastern and central basin, with 3 to 5 ft seas in the
NW basin. For the forecast, the ridge is expected to slide
eastward and weaken some over the next few days, resulting in
mainly gentle to moderate trade winds through the week and into
the weekend. Northerly swell will support rough seas through the
the NE Caribbean passages until Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1021 mb high pressure is centered between Bermuda and northeast
Florida near 30N70W. Farther east, a cold front extends from
31N37W to 25N40W A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated
this pattern is supporting fresh winds off the north coast of
Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and across the Old Bahama Channel north
of eastern Cuba. Buoy observations and earlier altimeter satellite
data show combined seas of affecting the waters N of 28N and E of
60W. A scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong SW winds north
of 29N between 50W and 45W, ahead of a weak cold front east of
Bermuda. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W.
Farther east, high pressure east of the Azores is supporting a
large area of fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 11 ft over the
eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
will continue over the waters S of 22N and W of 60W through Wed,
including in the approaches of the Windward Passage. The high
pressure will move eastward while slowly weakening. A surface
trough may develop just N of Hispaniola over the next 48 hours and
move east toward the waters just north of Puerto Rico by the end
of the work week.

$$
Mora