750
FXUS62 KCAE 070818
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
418 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A lull in thunderstorm activity is anticipated for midweek,
with increasing chances of showers and storms towards the end of
the week. Potential for strong to severe storms will exist on
Thursday and Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front.
Drier conditions return for the weekend. Expect generally above
average temperatures through the latter half of the week before
transitioning to near or slightly below average during the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As an upper level shortwave trough continues to move over the
area, expect showers or thunderstorms to linger into the early
morning hours. The majority of the activity should be in the
northern Midlands and the Pee Dee where outflow boundaries are
colliding and the shortwave energy is strongest.

The shortwave will move east of the area later this morning
with height rises over the region. The ridging aloft will allow
for above normal temperatures today with highs this afternoon in
the mid 80s to low 90s. With ridging over the area there will
be fewer showers and thunderstorms today than yesterday. However
PWAT values from 1.3 to 1.5 inches are still above normal for
the time of year and will support convective development as the
air mass destabilizes in the afternoon. CAMs favor isolated to
scattered convection, with highest coverage closer to the coast.
Convection will diminish in the evening with loss of heating.
Expect lows well above normal in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday and Wednesday night: Rain chances for Wednesday
should be slightly lower than previous days due to the presence
of a warm nose aloft around 700 mb still hindering development.
This warmer air aloft does seem weaker across the northern
Midlands, and slightly stronger across the southern Midlands and
CSRA. Best rain chances should be over the north, and if any
activity can get going through the afternoon, can not rule out
an isolated strong to severe storm. Wednesday night may see an
MCS moving through the central Appalachians before weakening
late Wednesday night as it approaches the cwa from the
northwest. Temperatures will be well above normal with highs in
the lower 90s.


Thursday and Thursday night: This still appears to be the period
with the highest chance for any severe weather. Approaching
upper trough will begin to lower heights aloft through the day,
and the previous warm nose aloft will be eroding. In addition,
the decaying MCS early Thursday should be putting out a surface
boundary that will eventually stall out across the cwa.
Guidance is showing the potential for additional shower and
thunderstorm development during the afternoon hours across the
upstate of SC on the western edge of the MCS front, with the
activity then advancing southeastward and expanding across the
central Midlands Thursday evening and into the night. Late
Thursday night will also see a surface cold front approaching
the region from the west, and expect to see additional scattered
development of strong storms along the front as it approaches
late. SPC does have the forecast are in a Day 3 Slight Risk,
with the main threats being damaging winds and hail.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Front moves through on Friday, with some shower and thunderstorm
activity still possible through the day until the deeper
moisture moves out and drier air begins to move into the region
by Friday night. Cooler and more tranquil weather is then forecast
for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Abundant low level moisture over the region and clearing skies
may lead to low stratus or fog at the TAF sites early this
morning. Convection is likely to remain north of the TAF sites
through the morning.

After 15Z, VFR conditions are likely with winds picking up from
the southwest to around 8 to 10 knots with some afternoon gusts
approaching 20 knots. We expect lower convective coverage today
than the past few days, leading to less confidence in impacts
to the terminals. Thunderstorms are more likely closer to the
coast and at OGB than the other TAF sites. Any convection will
diminish in the evening with loss of heating. With drier air in
place tonight, widespread ceiling restrictions appear less
likely. However shallow moisture could still lead to fog at AGS

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The extended will feature active
weather with mainly diurnal convection each day. There`s
potential for severe storms on Thursday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$