674
FXUS62 KCAE 011811
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
211 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm conditions will continue through Thursday as
surface high pressure and upper level ridging build back into
the area. Rain chances start to increase Friday as southwesterly
low level flow increases and steadily pushes moisture into the
region. Showers and thunderstorms are then likely over the
weekend as a series of weak disturbances push across the area
and moisture continues to build.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will remain well off the SE US coast with weak
flow over the forecast area. Cumulus will continue developing
through the afternoon however with dry air in the mid and upper
levels see on WV imagery do not expect significant vertical
development. Isolated showers currently in Lee and Sumter
Counties along a weak differential heating boundary will remain
light and move eastward over the next couple hours. With sunset
expect the cumulus to dissipate with a mostly clear start to the
night. With low level moisture remaining across the area tonight
and no low level jet expect fog and stratus to develop during
the early morning and sunrise hours. High temperatures remain on
track for the low to mid 80s this afternoon with lows tonight
in the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday night: Quiet and dry conditions are
expected for Thursday and Thursday night as ridging aloft builds
and surface high pressure builds just offshore. As a result,
afternoon highs will likely be a few degrees warmer than
Wednesday, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s.
Seasonably mild overnight lows can also be expected as
temperatures drop into the lower 60s.

Friday and Friday night: The upper ridge begins to flatten while
the axis shifts offshore. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is
forecast to move toward the area and PWAT levels increase during
the day to over 1.5". This combination brings an increasing
chance of afternoon showers and maybe thunderstorms, mainly for
the western portions of the forecast area. CAPE values are
forecast to be on the lower side (100-200 J/kg) and shear values
are forecast to be around 15 kts, so the severe weather threat
is very low. Diurnal temperatures should be similar to Thursday
as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A more active, summer-like pattern looks to be setting up for
the weekend and into the first part of next week. The upper
trough is forecast to begin weakening through the weekend with a
series of shortwaves moving through the Southeast. These
shortwaves bring the chance for daily (mainly) afternoon showers
and thunderstorms into the early part of next week. Low-level
flow is expected to become southwest, bringing additional
moisture to the region. As a result, the risk for stronger
storms increases for each afternoon as the instability gradually
increases each day.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions through the early morning hours then restrictions
in stratus and fog possible.

High pressure remains well off the SE Coast with weak flow over
the area. Fog and stratus from this morning have mixed out
however low level moisture remains as cumulus with limited
vertical growth have begun developing. With dry air in the mid
and upper levels do not expect any showers in the area however
some are possible just east of the terminals to the coast. Main
issue through the period will be fog and stratus potential
tonight. With moisture remaining in the low levels and no low
level jet expected the potential for fog and stratus is high
enough to include in TAFs. At fog prone OGB/AGS have included
mention of IFR/LIFR around daybreak.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Patchy late night/early morning
fog and stratus possible. Increasing potential for showers and
thunderstorms along with associated restrictions Friday through
Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$