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000
FXUS62 KCHS 221932
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
332 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be the dominant player across the southeast
through the week and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Visible satellite showed a field of shallow cumulus across the
forecast area this afternoon. The clouds should dissipate within an
hour of sunset this evening. The rest of the night should remain
clear and dry. Through the night, an H5 ridge will build over the
region from the east. At the sfc, the center of high pressure is
expected to slide from the Deep South, reaching the eastern
Carolinas by daybreak Tuesday. The combination of light to calm
winds, deep dry air, and clear sky will provide several hours of
strong radiational cooling conditions. Using a blend of MOS, low
temperatures are forecast to range from around 40 inland to the mid
to upper 40s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Larger scale upper flow pattern will remain somewhat progressive
through the mid week period with northern stream short-wave energy
driving through the Great Lakes region, and eventually swinging
through New England by Thursday with subtle troughiness nosing down
into the southeast states. At the surface, high pressure settles
over the southeast during the Tuesday into Wednesday period. A weak
surface boundary/cold front will settle down into the southeast
later Wednesday into Thursday.

Weather-wise: A return to quieter/rain-free weather through the
short term period. Temperatures will continue to run below normal
early on, before rebounding back to around normal Wednesday and
Thursday as southerly/southwesterly flow re-establishes across the
region. As mentioned in previous discussions, a few showers are not
out of the question late Wednesday into Thursday along the
aforementioned boundary. But precip chances are simply too low to
include in the forecast at this juncture.

Nighttime temperatures will be cool again Tuesday night...upper 40s
to lower 50s...rebounding back to around normal (middle 50s to
around 60) Wednesday night and Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level flow is looking to become a bit more amplified later
this week into the upcoming weekend with deepening troughiness
developing through the western CONUS and downstream ridging setting
up along the southeast and mid-Atlantic region. Surface high
pressure regains a foothold throughout much of the eastern U.S. and
will maintain dry weather. That said, we may have high level cloud
cover issues to contend with as southern stream upper jet energy
sets up from Texas eastward across the southeast. Otherwise,
temperatures will continue to run around normal late week into the
weekend, warming to above normal late weekend into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The center of sfc high pressure will slide east across Deep
South tonight, reaching the eastern Carolinas by daybreak Tuesday.
Northeast winds will gradually decrease tonight, generally ranging
between 10-15 kts late tonight. Wave heights should also subside to
3-4 ft within 20 NM, with 5-6 ft across the outer GA waters.

Tuesday through Saturday: Northeasterly winds early on become
southerly through mid week as high pressure shifts offshore. A cold
front slips into the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with high
pressure returning thereafter. The ongoing Small Craft Advisory for
the outer Georgia waters will persist into early Tuesday afternoon
for 6 ft seas, but otherwise conditions are expected to remain below
advisory criteria through the period.

Rip Currents: Winds weaken and veer southeasterly/southerly for
Tuesday and Wednesday. However, lingering 9 to 10 second swell and
proximity to the full moon will keep an elevated risk of rip
currents at the Georgia beaches Tuesday and potentially a Moderate
Risk along both southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina
beaches on Wednesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar will undergo maintenance April 23-26th. Critical
electrical work is planned at the radar site which will require
the radar to be offline until the work is completed. Once the
radar is taken down, it will remain offline until all electrical
work is finalized. The radar is tentatively scheduled to return
to service by April 26.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...Adam/NED
AVIATION...Adam/NED
MARINE...Adam/NED