Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
000
FXUS64 KCRP 160538
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1238 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
MSAS analyses reveal that the quasi-stationary frontal boundary
to the north has been moving slowly southward and is currently just
north of the CWA. PWAT values over the CWA in advance of this
boundary are expected to remain around 2 standard deviations
greater than normal. LAPS analyses reveal a decrease in the CIN
values and increase in CAPE values this afternoon, with current
values below 20 J/kg (except Webb County) and 3000-4000 J/kg,
respectively. NAM deterministic run predicts BRN values suggestive
of supercells tonight. Thus, strong to severe convection is
possible tonight. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is currently in
effect for the northern counties and Webb County until 01z
Saturday. Concur with deterministic output that the front will
meander approximately over the CWA tonight/Saturday. The
combination of the front, disturbances ejecting from the quasi-
stationary H5 low center SW of the Four Corners Region, copious
moisture, and instability will contribute to additional scattered
to numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms late
tonight/Saturday. Concur with the Slight risk for severe Saturday.
Deterministic global/mesoscale NWP model runs predict a high
amplitude disturbance to move across the northern
Plains/Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley, and the corresponding
surge of MSLP will finally force the front SWD across the CWA
Saturday night, resulting in additional convection, especially
over the southern CWA. With respect to flash flood potential,
although larger CAPE/vertical shear will decrease rainfall
efficiency, rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour are possible
per the WPC, which is near the FFG. Further, the quasi-stationary
boundary will likely contribute to persistent redevelopment of
convection. Thus, concur with WPC Marginal and Slight risk of
Excessive rainfall for much of the CWA tonight/Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Key Messages:
- Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Sunday
- Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Sunday
Synopsis: An upper-level low will meander around the Desert
Southwest early next week before ejecting eastward across the
Central/Southern Plains mid-week. Several mid-level disturbances
wrapping around the low are expected to move across our CWA
throughout much of the workweek, resulting in a Marginal Risk for
Severe thunderstorms and Excessive rainfall Sunday, isolated to
scattered rain and storm chances taper off from west to east Sunday,
then isolated chances through the middle of the week, and then
isolated to scattered Wed/Thu as a boundary moves through the region
from west to east.
Hazards: Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall remain possible
(very low around 5% chance within 25 mi of a point) into Sunday
across the northeastern portions of South Texas but is expected to
taper off by afternoon. Marine hazards are expected as a boundary in
response to a frontal boundary moves offshore. See Marine discussion
below.
Temperatures: A slight downtrend next week followed by an uptick in
high and low temperatures towards the end of next work-week. Look
for highs Mon-Tues in the upper 60s to low 70s to jump into the mid
to upper 80s during the second half of the week. Overnight lows
mainly in the 60s but dip into the 50s Mon-Tues nights.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
A mixed bag in the TAF forecast this period. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible throughout the period. Have tried
to give some indication of timing, but confidence is low as to the
exact timing for all sites. Flight categories are low through the
overnight hours, but should increase during the day. Though out
west, have temporarily returned to VFR at LRD, expect them to
settle back into an MVFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Areas of fog will develop this evening and persist through
Saturday morning as moist weak to moderate onshore flow moves
across the cooler sea surface. The proximity of a frontal boundary
and copious moisture will contribute to isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms tonight through Saturday. Locally heavy
rainfall may also occur. Weak onshore flow veers to the
northeast Sunday and increases to moderate early Monday in
response to a frontal boundary moving offshore. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are expected to develop early Monday with
gusts to Gale in the morning and afternoon. Northeast flow will
then become moderate late Monday, will veer onshore and become
weak Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
Sunday reduce in coverage to isolated Monday through mid-week and
then increase to scattered Wednesday or Thursday as another
frontal boundary moves offshore.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 67 79 61 71 / 50 50 10 10
Victoria 65 75 59 70 / 60 70 10 0
Laredo 67 79 61 69 / 70 40 30 40
Alice 66 79 59 70 / 60 50 10 20
Rockport 66 76 61 72 / 50 60 10 10
Cotulla 66 76 60 70 / 70 50 10 20
Kingsville 66 78 61 70 / 50 50 10 20
Navy Corpus 67 76 62 70 / 50 50 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WC
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...PH/83