Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000
FXUS64 KCRP 151144
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
644 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Key Messages:

- Slight risk of severe storms this evening/tonight northwest.

- Slight risk of flash flooding today through Saturday.

A shortwave passing across the area this morning will produce
showers and a few elevated thunderstorms as it interacts with a
very moist airmass. 00Z CRP sounding only indicated PWAT of 1.10"
(Still above normal) but forecast models indicated a rapid
increase in PWAT through the overnight hours, and morning sounding
could approach 1.5" value.

An approaching surface boundary and the convection potential ahead
of it becomes the forecast for the rest of the short term period.
The boundary is already through portions of North Texas, but will
move very slowly with a lack of mid and upper level support to push
it through. A strong mid-level low pressure center will remain
anchored over the SW US with impulses pushing across Texas leading
to a rainy pattern.  Much of today looks dry, but as we head into
this evening, convection is expected to develop north and west of
the region and move in late evening and overnight. With substantial
CAPE (>2000J/kg and sufficient shear, there is a potential for
supercell development with hail being the primary threat. SPC has
brought northwest portions of the CWA into a slight risk for severe
storms tomorrow night. Given the slow movement of this system and
the deep moisture, heavy rainfall will become a concern as well. For
Friday to Friday night, there is a slight risk of excessive rainfall
for our northern tier of counties. The heavy rain threat sinks
farther south into the forecast area by Saturday as the boundary
remains to our northwest.  Storm total rainfall over the next couple
of days is in the 2-3" range for northern counties and 1-3" south
and east, with isolated higher amounts. The ground can handle these
totals, however, would expect pockets of high rainfall rates both
Friday night and Saturday, and the rates become more of a concern
than the storm total values. Rainfall rates of 2-4"/hour would be
possible at times. Will not issue a flood watch at this time as
area wide rainfall totals would not warrant this. Concern is
mainly for isolated flash flooding.

Beyond the rainfall forecast...temperatures will be very warm today
with highs from the mid 90s west to the mid 80s near the coast.
Saturday will be substantially cooler as 850 temps drop around 5
degrees, but still above normal (upper 70s to lower 80s), and with
high humidity to keep that warm and humid feel.

We will introduce a moderate risk for rip currents along Gulf facing
beaches for Saturday as swell periods increase a bit and onshore
flow persists.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Key Messages:

-Marginal to Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall Saturday night

-Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms Saturday Night into Sunday

-Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms Possible Thursday

The long term period begins with rainfall expected to continue
Saturday night into Sunday. This will be due to the front being near
the coast and eventually pushing offshore by Sunday morning.
Efficient rainfall is expected to persist and continue dropping
heavy rain during this timeframe. Given the already saturated
soils from Saturday and the likely training of storms over the
same areas, flash flooding will be possible through at least 12Z
Sunday morning. QPF totals have anywhere from 2-4 inches possible,
which prompted SPC to put portions of the area in a Slight Risk
for Excessive Rainfall with the rest of the area in a Marginal
Risk. Precip chances will begin to drop off after daybreak and
eventually dry out by Sunday evening. Models project PWAT values
to rise again by Tuesday, and with the presence of isentropic lift
rain chances return to the forecast. The next shot at
thunderstorms arise when another boundary moves through the area
Thursday. This will be due to the upper level low that was
essentially parked over the Four Corners region finally tracks
east. Models depict some pretty good H5 vorticity with some
moderate instability. This will likely allow for some convection
near the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A busy TAF forecast this period. Currently have CIGS ranging from
IFR(east) to VFR(west) with showers generally exiting the area,
though VCT will see them for a couple more hours. Most of today
will be dry with CIGS returning to VFR levels. This evening things
turn back downhill with CIGS becoming IFR to LIFR east and MVFR to
IFR west. Chances for showers and storms begin late afternoon to
early evening at COT and gradually spread south and east through
the night. Have TS mentioned in TAFS until the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Areas of fog persist this morning with vis generally 1 to 3 miles
in the area. Weak to moderate southeasterly flow persists through
today. winds tonight through Friday. A few showers and storms
will be possible this morning, then rain chances increase late
tonight and on Saturday ahead of a slow moving cold front. The
front will move offshore by late Sunday and result in moderate to
strong northeast flow Sunday night through Monday night. This will
likely create Small Craft Advisory conditions that will last
through early Tuesday morning. Weak to moderate onshore flow
expected by daybreak Tuesday, as the center of a surface high
pressure system moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico and
southeastern United States. This will persist through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  69  82  67 /  20  40  40  50
Victoria          83  67  77  65 /  40  30  70  60
Laredo            94  69  82  67 /  30  60  60  70
Alice             89  68  82  66 /  30  40  50  60
Rockport          80  67  77  65 /  30  30  50  50
Cotulla           93  67  78  66 /  40  60  70  80
Kingsville        87  69  83  67 /  20  40  40  50
Navy Corpus       78  68  79  67 /  30  30  40  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...PH/83


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.