Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 141115
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
615 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Breezy southeasterly flow will continue today. It appears another
weak dry line will nose into the northwestern portions of South
Texas, reducing relative humidity values into the low teens. There
is moderate to high confidence that at least isolated Elevated
Fire Weather conditions will occur over the western Brush Country
and Rio Grande Plains today.

Temperatures will range from warm along the coast and over the
Victoria Crossroads (75-85) to downright hot over the Rio Grande
Plains (94-98). Fortunately, summer is not quite here yet, so we
will have mostly cloudy skies and isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms Friday as a cold front approaches the area,
leading to a very slight cool down (highs from 75-95).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Friday through Sunday

- Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Saturday

Not much has changed from the previous issuance of the forecast.
There will be an upper level disturbance that will be essentially
parked over the Four Corners Region. Simultaneously, there will
be a frontal boundary that will move through portions of Texas
before becoming near stationary near Central Texas. A surface low
will also develop near the Panhandle which was portrayed in the
GFS/ECMWF. PWAT values will rise to around 1.7-1.9 inches as well
through Sunday. Models also are depicting a fair amount of
instability spread out across the region as well. Due to the
combination of these factors and the effective isentropic lift in
the region, showers and thunderstorms are expected through
Sunday. As a result, WPC has put the CWA in a Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall Saturday. This is will likely be the wettest
day of weekend with the environment primed for efficient
rainfall. Chances decrease Monday and Tuesday though showers are
still possible due to isentropic lift still being present in the
region though chances shouldn`t be as widespread. Temperatures
will become more seasonal again, which is nice due to the rain.
Highs will be in the 70s and 80s Saturday before trending to the
60s and 70s by Monday. Temperatures will begin to warm again by
late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The TAF forecast has proven to be a bit tricky for this cycle.
Winds have remained elevated about 5 knots higher than earlier
anticipated. Still, have left the mention of Wind Shear for all
sites but CRP as the VAD profile still indicates 40-50 knot winds
aloft. Winds will mix down later in the day, with gusts to 30
knots expected across South Texas. Mostly cloudy skies will lead
to generally MVFR conditions, with brief periods of IFR/LIFR
conditions in the overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 10 AM this
morning for the nearshore waters and bays. Visibility will
generally be 1 mile or less. Moderate southeasterly winds will
continue over the Bays and nearshore waters south of Port
Aransas, with all other areas experiencing weak to moderate
southeasterly winds. There is a low chance for showers and
thunderstorms late tonight. Weak to moderate onshore flow and
scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for Friday and
Saturday, in response to an approaching frontal boundary and
copious moisture. A cold front will move across the region late
Sunday and result in moderate to strong northeast flow Sunday
night and Monday. Therefore, Small Craft Advisory conditions will
be possible Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    83  71  84  68 /   0  20  20  30
Victoria          80  70  81  66 /  10  20  30  30
Laredo            98  73  95  68 /   0  10  20  60
Alice             91  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30
Rockport          76  69  78  66 /  10  20  20  30
Cotulla           94  71  91  67 /   0  20  20  40
Kingsville        90  72  87  67 /   0  10  20  20
Navy Corpus       76  69  78  66 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ231-232-
     236-237-250-255.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...LS/77


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