011
FXUS64 KCRP 271049
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
549 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Key Messages:

- High risk of rip currents through tonight

- Minor coastal flooding likely today

- Strong winds expected today. A Wind Advisory is in effect from
  10 AM through 7 PM

- Isolated to scattered showers tonight and Sunday

While not expected, there is a low chance of isolated showers
today due to an upper level disturbance. A surface low pressure
will develop today, resulting in a strong onshore flow. A Wind
Advisory is now in place from 10 AM through 7 PM across the
Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. The pressure gradient will
eventually shift to the west this evening, which could lead to
Wind Advisory conditions over the Brush Country.

An upper level trough will move across the area Sunday combining
with abundant moisture and moderate instability to produce
a 20%-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms over the northern
Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads. The Storm Prediction Center
has included these areas in a Marginal Risk for severe weather,
though I suspect it is more likely that strong storms will move
down into South Texas from the Hill Country rather than develop
over our area due to a capping inversion.

Strong onshore flow today will lead to several hazards across the
Middle Texas Coast. First, a combination of strong winds and long
period swell will lead to minor coastal flooding along Gulf
facing beaches. These conditions will also lead to a high risk of
rip currents along Gulf facing beaches today through tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms expected this week

- Minor coastal flooding possible through midweek

While a series of shortwaves will keep a low (15-30%) chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast daily through the
upcoming week, things will remain relatively quiet for the long
term forecast. Winds will weaken Sunday night, with a weak to
moderate onshore flow persisting. Temperatures will be warm with
highs in the mid 80s across the east to the mid 90s across the
west.

With persistent moderate to strong southeasterly flow through the
weekend, long period swells, and large sea states, minor coastal
flooding along Gulf-facing beaches is possible during times of
high tide. This risk could continue through the middle of the week
before swell periods begin to decrease, diminishing the chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR ceilings prevail this morning though there will be some brief
VFR conditions for COT and VCT this morning. Winds will quickly
increase this morning, with gusts to near 30 knots expected by
mid-morning. By midday, VFR conditions are expected but don`t
expect these to last long as MVFR ceilings redevelop once again.
It will continue to be windy through the TAF period, with gusts to
near 35 knots possible this afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong onshore flow with occasional gusts to 35 knots remain
likely through Sunday. Seas will remain elevated through Monday
morning, so the Small Craft Advisory has been extended through
Monday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
late tonight and Sunday morning. The strong onshore flow will
weaken through Sunday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow is then
expected to persist from Monday morning through the upcoming
week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    88  74  86  75 /   0   0  30  10
Victoria          85  73  85  73 /  10   0  50  30
Laredo            97  75  93  74 /   0  10  20   0
Alice             92  74  88  74 /  10   0  40  10
Rockport          84  74  83  75 /  10   0  40  20
Cotulla           95  74  91  73 /  10  20  30  10
Kingsville        89  74  88  75 /  10   0  40  10
Navy Corpus       84  75  84  75 /  10   0  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ233-234-242>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ345-
     442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...LS/77