National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KCRP 131948
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
248 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE REMAINS THE POP FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FOR THE NEXT THREE FORECAST PERIODS
FROM EAST TO WEST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE UPPER LOW AND PUSH IT
TO THE NORTH (CANADIAN KEEPS IT SOUTH AND AM IGNORING THIS SOLUTION
ALTHOUGH CANADIAN IS DRY). UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO IMPACT AREA FROM
EAST TO WEST DURING PERIOD. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST OUT WEST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WHERE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES. FOR THIS EVENING...CHANCE POPS
NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT SAME AREAS AND ALSO SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS
(EXPECT ACTIVITY IN GULFMEX...IF ANY...TO DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES
COAST OR MOVES INLAND). FOR FRIDAY...WILL GO WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ALL BUT VICTORIA AREA...WITH EASTERN
AREAS ONLY HAVING A 10 POP FOR NOW. ANY RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE RESTRICTED ONLY TO THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
SHOULD END BY THE EVENING. CONCERNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...WILL
PRETTY MUCH GO WITH PERSISTENCE TONIGHT AND A BIT COOLER (1F-2F) ON
FRIDAY NIGHT (GIVEN A BIT DRIER AIRMASS). WILL GO A BIT WARMER IN
VICTORIA AREA ON FRIDAY GIVEN DRIER AIR/LESS CLOUDS BUT ABOUT THE
SAME OR COOLER ELSEWHERE (ACTUALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST). WILL STILL SEE A LOT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY EXCEPT
MAYBE NORTHEAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR IS.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ONSHORE WINDS GENERALLY 5
TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED (AT BEST)...ESPECIALLY AFTER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR/UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE IN.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVERALL A DRY AND WARM
EXTENDED FORECAST. IT BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE BIG BEND. ON SATURDAY THERE WILL STILL BE A TONGUE OF
HIGHER MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUED OF 1.9-2.0 INCHES. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
OR ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA...BUT MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL BE WARMING AND WEAKNESS ALOFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE
LEFT MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF ZONES AND GRIDS. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR DOES EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA FROM EAST TO WEST BY
SUNDAY AND PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST FLATTENS AND BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SO TEMPS REMAIN RATHER WARM. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND MAY CLIMB INTO THE 105 TO 109 RANGE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. FINALLY...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN TUESDAY
AND MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAINING SOUTH
OF THE AREA...MOVING INTO MEXICO ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  96  78  96  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  95  75  94  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            78  99  79  99  77  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             77  97  76  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  91  81  91  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           78  97  76  99  75  /  30  20  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79  96  79  97  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  91  81  91  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
JR/76...LONG TERM