Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 121720
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Increasing moisture and an approaching shortwave have led to
isolated showers and thunderstorms this morning, generally across
our southern counties and waters. Some activity may linger into
the afternoon hours. Updated PoPs to reflect the current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Weak ridging will persist through this evening, bringing Pacific
moisture into the area. This will lead to cloud cover through the
day. South to southeasterly surface flow will keep warm and moist
Gulf air streaming into the area. Temperatures will rise into
upper 70s over the Victoria Crossroads to the mid 80s across the
Rio Grande Plains. Onshore flow will increase to moderate levels
this afternoon and evening, advecting warm and moist air into the
area. Models indicate a moderate chance of fog developing over
the Coastal Plains in the late overnight to early morning hours;
however, winds could be limiting factor in development.
Temperatures will soar into the 80s and upper 90s Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Key Messages:

- Fog chances Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week and
into early next week.

Increasing surface moisture associated with southeasterly onshore
flow will lead to the potential for fog Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. The SREF is indicating a medium chance (up to 50%)
of visibilities less than 1 mile over the Victoria Crossroads and
along the Coastal Bend. Higher chances (up to 80%) exist over the
bays and nearshore waters. The NBM is showing lower probabilities
(15% chance) in the aforementioned areas. While there are
differences in the model output, chances for fog remain likely due
to warmer, moist air flowing over the cooler waters of the Gulf.

With onshore flow bringing in increased moisture, highs heading into
this weekend will reach the low-to-mid 90s out in the Brush Country
and Rio Grande Plains, with upper 70s to mid 80s elsewhere. Lows
will range in the 60s to 70s across the region.

By late week, the focus moves to our next chances for rain. Model
guidance is still in agreement regarding the development of a deep,
closed low over the Desert Southwest on Thursday which will act to
produce some shortwave perturbations that will travel over South-
central Texas. Forecast models are also depicting a cold front
approaching the CWA on Friday. There are still some differences in
the timing of the frontal passage, but it will likely pass through
sometime on Saturday. The closed low generated shortwaves, the cold
front, the and high moisture pool out ahead of the front (PWATs 1.5-
1.7 inches) will allow for increased rain chances into the weekend
and early next week. The first chance will be Thursday night for
portions of our northernmost counties as well at the Victoria
Crossroads region, however, chances appear minimal (10-20%) due to
the presence of decent capping that will likely inhibit much in the
way of rain. The main chance begins Friday morning and those chances
continue into Monday morning. Again, confidence in timing is still
uncertain at this time, so POPs remain around 20-40%.

Following the chances for rainy weather, cooler conditions are in
store with highs in the 60s next Monday. High pressure will then set
in, making for drier and breezier conditions. Near normal
temperatures will then be ushered in.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals. Breezy
southeasterly winds will persist through this evening with gusts
around 20 knots. Low ceilings will redevelop overnight with MVFR
expected by 06/07Z. IFR ceilings are likely to develop by 09Z and
persist through sunrise. MVFR returns by mid morning and continues
through the end of this TAF cycle. Fog doesn`t seem as likely
tonight as winds will be a bit stronger. There`s a low chance for
isolated showers at LRD this evening but confidence was not high
enough to include at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Generally weak to moderate southeasterly flow will continue
through Saturday. Sea fog will be possible Wednesday and Thursday
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible by
the end of the week and into the beginning of next week. A cold
front will shift winds to the northeast over the weekend and
result in elevated seas in its wake (next Monday and Tuesday).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  67  86  70 /  20   0   0   0
Victoria          77  63  83  68 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            84  66  97  70 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             82  65  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
Rockport          76  66  79  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           84  65  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        80  66  90  69 /  20   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       75  67  79  68 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...TC/95


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