645
FXUS64 KCRP 092019
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
319 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Key Messages:

 Moderate to Major heat-related impacts continue this afternoon
with heat index values over 110 over the Brush Country and up to
120 over the southern Coastal Bend

The weak dryline has struggled to push eastward into the Brush
Country this afternoon. Plentiful sunshine has greatly increased
surface heating with temperatures climbing to around 100 in
combination with dewpoints still in the 70s, resulting in heat index
values around 110. Therefore, have expanded the Heat Advisory
northward and westward through 7 PM this evening and has been
upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning over the inland Nueces and
inland Kleberg Counties. The dryline is still anticipated to
extend eastward over the next few hours but it will quickly
retreat westward tonight. A mix of patchy fog and haze tonight
with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

The persistent hazy conditions from lingering near-surface smoke
over fires in Central America will continue until the aforementioned
front pushes southward through South Texas during the day on Friday.
The pre-frontal wind shift from the northeast will lessen our
surface WAA and 850mb temperatures, resulting in a break in the
dangerous heat with highs in the upper 80s along the coast to the
mid 90s over the Brush Country.

The `real` part of the front, the dewpoint gradient, pushes through
Friday night and will lead to a low (20%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms over the Brush Country. The Brush Country along the
Rio Grande seems to be the most favorable area due to enhanced
isentropic lift and a stronger LLJ to act as an additional lifting
mechanism in combination to a well above normal moisture and 850mb
positive vorticity axis. Lows dropping into the low to mid 70s
Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Key Messages:

 Cooler on Saturday in the wake of a front

 Low to medium chances for showers and storms through Monday

The forecast has continued to remain on track during this cycle.
There are a series of shortwaves that will be ejected through early
next week (Monday). This will be in association with a upper level
disturbance meandering over the Four Corners region that will slowly
track east through the Great Plains by Monday. Models depict an
abundance of moisture being present in the area with PWATs around 2
inches. As a result, there will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday through early next week.

Showers and thunderstorms clear out after the passage of the
disturbance to the north by the end of the day Monday. PWATs do come
down as well though there is a low to medium chance that some above
normal moisture could linger through next week. The caveat is the
lack of surface forcing which looks to limit chances to around 20%
through the remainder of the week. Though temperatures will be
cooler Saturday with highs in the 80s, this will be short lived as
temperatures will unfortunately resume flirting with triple digits
by Monday out west. This "summer like" spring will continue through
the remainder of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Clouds are clearing to the northeast, leading to VFR ceilings across
all sites with the exception at VCT where MVFR ceilings linger
just a tad longer. Hazy conditions due to near-surface smoke from
fires in Central America continue to impact portions of South
Texas, leading to a 4-6 SM vsby reduction at times. Low ceilings
redevelop tonight along with patchy fog in advanced of an
approaching weak `cold` front. At least MVFR ceilings will brush
over South Texas with lowering ceilings as you near the coast,
IFR/LIFR potential over VCT/CRP from 08-14Z. The weak front will
push through the area in the morning, resulting in NE winds around
12 knots and gusts around 20 knots and a potential break in the
haze near the end of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Weak onshore flow will continue through this evening, then shift
northeasterly Friday morning as a weak cold front approaches the
waters. East-northeasterly flow strengthens to moderate Friday
afternoon and continues into Friday night. Patchy fog and haze
will continue to impact the waters ahead of the boundary.
Moderate flow will shift back southeasterly by Sunday, becoming
weak to moderate by Monday morning. A low chance of showers and
storms on Saturday increases to a low to medium chance Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  90  75  85 /   0  10  10  20
Victoria          74  92  70  86 /   0  10   0  10
Laredo            78  96  74  89 /   0  10  30  30
Alice             76  93  72  87 /   0  10  10  30
Rockport          77  88  75  84 /   0  10  10  20
Cotulla           78  95  74  89 /   0  10  10  20
Kingsville        78  91  74  85 /   0  10  10  30
Navy Corpus       78  87  76  85 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239>241-
     244.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242-
     243.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF/94
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...EMF/94