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000
FXUS63 KDDC 160341
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1041 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe thunderstorms 7 PM - Midnight. Some storms
  severe with large hail and damaging winds, and tornadoes.

- Intense northwest winds and blowing dust Tuesday.

- Two cold fronts are expected, one on Thursday and another on
  Saturday, bringing much cooler air.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 509 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Mesoscale discussion

2215 observations are showing a mostly clear skies across
southwest Kansas with little to no cu fields showing up. There
is only a hint of some cumulus around Medicine Lodge to Pratt.
In the upper levels the 500 mb closed low and jet streak is
located in southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas with a
988 mb surface low in the Nebraska panhandle. The dryline is
located along US 283 and the Pacific cold front is located along
the front range of the Rockies.

Initial thoughts about the environment based off of the special
balloon sounding and SPC mesoanalysis...the special balloon
sounding at 20Z around Dodge City showed a very well mixed layer
from the surface to the tropopause suggesting dry air has
entrained into much of southwest Kansas with LCL values above
700 mb. The relative humidity values between the LCL and LFC
levels are at 20-30% which suggest a lot of dry air is keeping
the cloud development at bay. The hodograph didn`t have much
curvature at 0-2 km with weaker winds in the mid levels followed
by strong winds in the anvil layer. This would suggest a lack
of tornado development and hail threat up to baseball size.


While many short term models earlier in the day suggested a
supercell developing along the dryline the later we get into
this event with little to no cumulus would suggest once the
Pacific front starts overtaking the dryline and the lower level
moisture increases with the 850 mb winds increasing after 7 pm
this will be what we will have for severe weather. Basically
storm development will be along the front and grow linear pretty
quickly with large hail and damaging straight line winds the
threat. Should we get a discrete supercell along the dryline
before the cold front moves in this will be where our greatest
tornado threat will be.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Dust may begin to reduce visibility slightly Today with the
persistent strong gusty winds. A dust advisory is in effect for
most of northwest Kansas. The RAP-Chem experimental model for
surface dust concentration focuses all of hat higher pockets of
dust sourcing in the eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas. Some
areas of our forecast area bear watching though especially
along the Colorado line out on highway 400, for potentially
adding to the dust advisory.

For this evening, the sever potential is enhanced with any
developing storms as the 3km NAM/HRRR model hodographs indicate
rather elongated sickle hodographs beginning around 6-7 pm,
largely favorable for hail , but becoming strongly curved with
time in the lowest 2 km heading into the mid and late evening,
more supportive of wind and tornadoes.

Confidence is high on supercell impacts during this early
evening to late evening timeframe, At the same time the
confidence is good with respect to area of initiation. Several
members of the HREF ensembles agree on storms developing along
the eastward sweeping cold front by mid evening, with an average
starting point near Meade and Gray counties, lifting east
northeast thereafter and exiting the northeasternmost counties
(Hays to Stafford and Pratt), around midnight to 1 am.

Following the severe weather risks, winds should taper down
through the overnight with winds decoupling from the surface,
but over the winds begin mixing post sunrise Tuesday, strong
gusts to 40-50 mph will be common, with sustained winds in the
westernmost counties seeing sustained winds possible to the high
wind criterion of 40 mph and gust to 60 mph. These very strong
northwesterly winds will create a serious risk for any north and
south traveling vehicles , especially high profile vehicles. A
high wind warning has replaced the high wind watch for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Ensemble members of the EC/GFS show essentially a dry forecast
through at least the weekend, and even those member means on the
weekend are sparse in number and light in qpf (only a few
hundredths of rain).

Wednesday night will bring a cold front that will limit the
rest of the week and weekend largely to highs in the 50s, with
lows in the 30s in the latter half of the week.

The week 2 outlook has high confidence (60-70%) in temperatures
leaning above average for late April, while to a lesser degree
(about 35 %) confidence in leaning above average rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Thunderstorms are expected to be at least in the vicinity of the
airports through about 09z Tue as a cold front overtakes the
dryline and forces convection for the next several hours. The
highest confidence of impacts is at HYS, where a convective
TEMPO group was included for 06-09z. Strong subsidence and much
drier air will bring VFR/SKC by 12z Tue, with elevated west
winds. After 15z Tue, intense W/NW winds are expected at all
airports, with gusts of 40-45 kts. The strongest wind gusts are
expected at GCK, up to near 50 kts, where blowing dust will
limit visibility at times. NW winds will rapidly diminish around
00z Wed.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ043-044-061>063-074-084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Tatro
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner