000
FXUS63 KDDC 191912
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
212 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances (40-60%) continue late Tonight into early
  Saturday.

- Elevated to near critical fire risk expected Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A strong mid and upper jet will be moving though the region,
over the next 24 hours, with a cold surface high having
influence from the Northern Plains into the lower Missouri River
basin. Cold advection and upslope flow will be in place to
enhance mid level frontogenesis processes  across northwest and
west central Kansas Tonight. Low chances for precipitation
spread as far south as the Kansas Highway 96 corridor through
about midnight, with chances of rain showers showers farther
south to the Oklahoma line through 6 am Saturday. The area of
best rates and qpf (amounts) is really focused however north of,
say highway 4, where locations like Wakeeney and Hays into
portions of Rush and Ness counties have expected amounts between
0.05 and a tenth of an inch of rain. Temperatures-wise, lows
Tonight expected in the mid 30s in a lot of areas, but closer to
freezing in the far western counties like Hamilton.
Saturday`s highs will be tempered in the 50s on average, with
the persistent cloudiness and lingering showers through the
afternoon. The best risk for freezing temperatures is from
Dighton to Garden and Ulysses, westward to the state line on
Saturday night. With the level of cloud cover expected however,
don’t expect any frost advisories to get issued farther east
where temps fall in that 33-36 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Much more insolation with the absence of clouds as the day
wears on Sunday. Clearing on Sunday night might leave near fair
radiational cooling conditions, if it weren`t for the boundary
layer mixing that is likely to continue through the night
(south winds gusting up to 30 mph). Alot of the guidance
suggests upper 30s for overnight lows into Monday morning,
However, the ConsALL models , and specifically the ECMWF and
FV3SAR support  low to middle 40s for the Monday morning lows
with those gusty winds. Confidence is on the uptrend for
widespread 80s Monday afternoon across the western half of the
area. As the surface high that has influenced our weather slides
into the lower Mississippi valley, a lee side low will develop
with southeasterly downslope winds providing adiabatic heating
in addition to the strong isolation, right ahead of a southward
moving cold front from Nebraska driven by a Northern Plains.
This will bring a slight risk for thunderstorms (15-30%) , maybe
strong to severe intensity, really anytime Monday into Monday
evening, primarily in the eastern/northeasternmost counties.
That will pave the way for not as warm temperatures over the
next couple of days into mid week. The NBM model brings in more
low chances (about 20 percent) for rain showers again late
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Light easterly wind with little if any gusts whatsoever through
at least the next 24 hours. VFR category clouds however will
remain present through most of the day and increasing chances
for rain showers begin this evening across the HYS terminal
region, reaching farther south with potential for MVFR ceilings
to spread into the GCK-HYS, and maybe even DDC corridors by
around 12z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Monday brings a return risk of elevated and near critical fire,
but perhaps only over a limited area. A departing surface high
across the southern plains toward the gulf will generate gusty
winds for certain. Winds in the far western counties might be
dropping off in the afternoon (losing gust potential). The key
factor will be the moisture spreading northward characterized by
the surface dew point which at this point the NBM (smart combo
of some models and climo) spread low to mid 40s dew points into
the region. There will probably at minimum be a corridor of
elevated to near critical fire risk somewhere around highway
corridors 25 and 83 where meteorological elevated to critical
risk is going to be a concern in the afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99