250
FXXX12 KWNP 071231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 May 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at high levels. Region 3663 (N25W52,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited slight separation in its intermediate
spots, showed little overall growth, and was responsible for the vast
majority of the M class flares. The largest was an M5.1 at 07/0616 UTC.
Region 3664 (S19W05, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) maintained its delta
configuration, continued to grow and produced M-class activity. Region
3668 (S17E06, Dao/beta-gamma) displayed growth in overall areal extent
as
well as new intermediate and trailer spots. Despite its growth, this
region was mostly inactive. New Region 3670 (N17E59, Hax/alpha) was
numbered during the period, but was also inactive. The remaining spotted
active regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to range from moderate to high levels over
07-09 May, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and a
high chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), due to the flare potential
of Regions 3663 and 3664.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 07-09 May. There is a chance for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 07-09 May
due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was indicative of the continued effects of
the 03 May CME arrival. Additionally, a positive polarity CH HSS likely
connected with the Earth during the time of the CME passage. Total field
strength continued to slowly decrease, reaching a peak of 12 nT around
early in the period. The Bz component saw southward deflections to -12
nT before  turning mostly north for the latter half of the period. Solar
wind speeds slowly climbed over the period, reaching a peak over 565
km/s.

.Forecast...
Elevated solar wind conditions, associated a positive polarity CH HSS,
are likely to prevail over 07-08 May. On 09 May, the anticipated
glancing effects of a CME that departed the Sun on 06 May, may cause
enhancements in the solar wind environment before returning to nominal
levels by the end of the period.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with the arrival of
a CME that left the Sun on 03 May, and the likely onset of a positive
polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast...
Active conditions are likely on 07 May as influence from a positive
polarity CH HSS persists. Waning CH HSS influences by 08 May should
bring quiet to unsettled levels briefly, before possibly ramping back up
to periods of active conditions on 09 May with the anticipated glancing
effects of a CME that departed the Sun on 06 May.