366
FNUS73 KDLH 060952
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Island Lake RX...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
452 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 06.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Southeasterly 20-foot winds remain 11-13 mph today, while transport
winds increase from 20 mph this morning to 25 mph this afternoon.
Minimum relative humidity this afternoon is forecast to drop to the
mid-30% range, although there is a 30% chance that the minRH only
drops to 40% at the fire site. A wetting rainfall is not expected
at the fire site until early Tuesday morning that lasts into Tuesday
afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL increasing to 5200 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (51300 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (86200-105200 knot-ft) late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............60  63  65  66  68  68  69  68
RH..............53  44  41  38  36  37  35  37
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..10  11  12  12  12  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.18  19  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.3
Transp wind dir.SE  S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.20  22  22  22  23  23  24  25
Haines index....3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100051  86  95  98  102 100 105 95

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 26 mph.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL decreasing to 1100 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 17 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (61800-95000 knot-ft) decreasing to
                    poor to fair (11900-20600 knot-ft) early in the
                    evening.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............67     61     56     52     51     50
RH..............39     46     53     59     63     71
20 ft wind......SE 12  SE 13  SE 17  SE 16  SE 16  SE 17
20 ft wind gust.20     22     25     25     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....4100   1000   800    800    1100   1100
Transport wind..SE 26  SE 20  SE 18  SE 17  SE 18  SE 20
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100095     17     13     13     17     19

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 28 mph.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 17 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (24000-37600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.48 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
Weather cov.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).60     80     90     80     80     70
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............50     50     55     58     58     58
RH..............74     77     77     80     80     77
20 ft wind......SE 18  SE 19  SE 18  E 17   E 15   E 13
20 ft wind gust.27     28     26     25     23     20
Mix hgt (ft)....1400   1600   1700   1600   1600   1600
Transport wind..SE 23  SE 25  SE 25  SE 24  SE 22  E 18
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100027     35     37     35     30     26

$$
Forecaster...Nathan
Requested by...Angela Schmitt
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413212.1/DLH
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL angela.schmitt@usda.gov