Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
236 FNUS22 KWNS 050656 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...Synopsis... An active fire-weather pattern will continue on D2/Monday as a powerful mid-level trough ejects through the Central Plains. Associated dry, windy conditions to the west of a dryline will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across central/eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. By peak heating on Tuesday afternoon, the mid-level trough is expected to become negatively tilted and centered from eastern MT southeastward through central NE/KS. Upstream of the trough axis, a belt of 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level flow is expected from northeastern AZ through the TX/OK Panhandles. Downward momentum mixing, in conjunction with a tightening surface pressure gradient and strong isallobaric flow, will yield persistent and strong surface flow around 20-30 mph during the afternoon and evening. Very dry conditions are also anticipated, with relative humidities as low as 5-10 percent. As a result, high confidence exists in critical meteorological fire-weather conditions across the delineated area. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible, but a few factors preclude highlighting a specific area, including: 1. local fuel state due to bands of wetting precipitation from thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday morning, and, 2. whether sustained surface winds will meet extremely critical conditions (30+ mph) for an extended period of time. Elevated/critical meteorological fire-weather conditions will likely develop to the northeast (e.g., southeastern CO and southwestern KS) and east (e.g., eastern TX/OK Panhandles) of the delineated areas as the dryline mixes eastward on Monday. However, much of these areas received around 0.5+ inches of precipitation recently, which should temper the fire-weather threat immediately behind the dryline. ..Flournoy.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$