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000
FXUS63 KEAX 232017
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
317 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonally normal conditions expected today and tomorrow.

- Showers and thunderstorms slowly move into the area Thursday kicking
  off multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms with the
  potential for strong to severe storms (Fri - Sun). All severe
  hazards are possible (damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes,
  and flooding).

- The weather pattern remains warm and active over the next
  several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Ridge build up behind a shortwave trough edges a cold front
southward and pushes showers out of the region through the afternoon
leaving the remainder of the day partly sunny and rain free. Showers
and thunderstorms this morning gave a small hint at what is
appearing more than likely to be an active pattern over the next 7
days. Fortunately, an upper level ridge builds across the central
CONUS today and tomorrow keeping skies quiet. NW flow aloft counter
balanced by warmer southerly flow below keeps temperatures near
seasonal normals.

As Thursday evening approaches, a substantial upper level trough
digs south across the western CONUS. As this trough traverses the
Rockies, it spins up a lower level leeward trough maintaining a
negative tilt as it approaches the central CONUS. This synoptic
configuration of the trough combined with enhanced southerly flow
advects more warm air and moisture northward. This suggests a
favorable environment for potentially strong to severe storms
Thursday night through Sunday. While details are still a little
coarse, confidence is increasing in the potential for multiple waves
of storms. Timing of heaviest rainfall remains fairly variable with
several models suggesting the overnight hours; however, scattered
showers and thunderstorms with intermittent pockets of heavy
rainfall remain possible during the daytime hours.

Deterministic models are still fairly broad brushed when it comes to
precipitation timing and coverage making it a little difficult to
confidently state forecast details; however, models are consistent
with a leading area of showers and thunderstorms slowly working
their way into the area starting Thursday afternoon. The LLJ
accelerates Thursday night into Friday pumping even more warm air
and moisture into the region. PWAT values rise above 1-1.5" across
the region illustrating a potential for locally heavy downpours.
This is further enhanced by frontogenesis across eastern KS and
ample convective variables allowing storms to train over portions of
the region. Finer details on severe weather potential will become
more clear as short term convective allowing models come into range.
Chances for severe weather and their associated hazards will be
dependent on breaks in the convective coverage allowing for the
recharging of the atmosphere ahead of subsequent waves of storms.
Model environmental fields suggest the potential for all severe
hazards including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Where
there is greater confidence is the potential for flooding. While we
continue to have a precipitation deficit, eyes are still watching
expected rain totals as excessive rainfall is possible over the
course of the period. Both flash and river flooding are possible
especially as we get further into the weekend after repeated rounds
of heavy rainfall. At the moment, the projection of heaviest
rainfall is expected across north central and northeast MO;
however, uncertainties remain as accumulations remain highly
variable and dependent on where heavy rainfall occurs.

Looking beyond this weekend`s system, the weather pattern continues
to remain active. Long term guidance gives us a little bit of a
break early next week, but then moves a couple waves through the
region to finish out next week. CPC guidance trends temperatures
warmer than average over the next couple weeks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast
period. Isolated showers are progressing eastward away from
KIXD. Gusty NW winds continue through the afternoon dissipating
after sunset. Winds become light and variable overnight
continuing through the end of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel