Flood Potential Outlook Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
000
FGUS73 KEAX 152050
ESFEAX
MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095-
101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-160000-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
250 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024
...2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...
This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Kansas River,
Missouri River, and their tributaries, in northeast Kansas and
northern Missouri.
...Below normal flood potential through mid-May along the Missouri
River from the Iowa border through Boonville...
...Tributaries which typically flood during the spring months will
likely experience minor to moderate flooding...
Outlook:
Through early May, the probability of flooding along the Missouri
River from the Iowa border to Boonville is roughly 15 to 30 percent
lower than normal.
Spring minor flood probability values along the Missouri River from
the Iowa border downstream to St. Joseph, Missouri range from 20 to
30 percent. The stretch of the river from Leavenworth, Kansas
through Kansas City has a 10 to 15 percent chance of minor flooding
through mid-May. Further downstream, Napoleon through Boonville show
probabilities of exceeding flood stage ranging from 50 to 60 percent.
Minor flooding is likely across tributary creeks and rivers which
typically experience flooding each spring. In addition, the
following basins have greater than or equal to 50 percent
probability of reaching moderate flood category: Upper Stranger,
Crooked, Wakenda, Grand near Sumner, Blackwater, Lamine, Petite
Saline, and Big. All of these basins frequently experience moderate
flooding each spring.
Recent Conditions:
The majority of the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA received below
normal precipitation the past 30 days. Far northwest Missouri
received the least amount of precipitation where values were
generally below 50 percent of normal. The wettest region was found
along and west of a line from Atchison to Olathe, Kansas to Butler,
Missouri. Precipitation totals ranged from 125 to 175 percent of
normal within this area.
During the past 90 days, the vast majority of the local region
received above normal precipitation. Over half of the Kansas
City/Pleasant Hill HSA received in excess of 150 percent of normal
precipitation with areas in the vicinity of Atchison, Leavenworth,
and St. Joseph reporting in excess of 200 percent of normal.
30-day mean temperature values ranged from the lower 30s along Iowa
border to the upper 30s across the Kansas City metro area. These
values were generally 4 to 6 degrees above normal. For the past 90-
Day period, mean temperatures were also above normal with values
ranging 2 to 5 degrees warmer than average.
Present Conditions:
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates around 40 percent of the
Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA is experiencing at least abnormally
dry conditions. In addition, around 6 percent of the HSA is affected
by moderate drought. Looking at the entire Missouri Basin, around 50
percent of the basin is experiencing at least abnormally dry
conditions with roughly 20 percent reporting at least moderate
drought, and 5 percent severe drought.
No snow cover is present across the local region. In addition, much
below normal snowpack is common across the northern Plains and
mountainous areas of the upper Missouri Basin.
7-Day streamflow values across the local region were generally near
normal. However, parts of the Marias Des Cygne River observed much
above normal streamflow conditions.
Future Conditions:
7-Day forecast precipitation amounts are expected to range from only
several hundredths across northeast Kansas and far northwest
Missouri, to a quarter inch across central Missouri.
The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern highly
favored for above normal temperatures. Normal precipitation amounts
are anticipated.
Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear signal
regarding temperature for the local area. The greatest likelihood of
above normal temperatures will be across the northern third of the
United States. The precipitation outlook slightly favors above
normal amounts across the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA.
The next outlook will be issued on Thursday, February 29th.
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In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Delaware River
Muscotah 27.0 28.0 36.0 : 24 28 20 23 <5 <5
:Stranger Creek
Easton 17.0 18.0 23.0 : 80 87 66 68 6 6
Tonganoxie 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 49 57 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
De Soto 26.0 33.0 36.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Turner Bridge KCK 41.0 47.5 54.0 : 5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
23rd Street KCK 33.0 54.0 55.0 : 13 23 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Missouri River
St Joseph 17.0 21.0 27.0 : 34 63 14 36 5 11
Atchison 22.0 27.0 30.0 : 22 56 9 18 5 14
Leavenworth 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 15 40 8 18 <5 9
Parkville 25.0 28.0 35.0 : 13 29 6 17 <5 8
Kansas City 32.0 35.0 49.0 : 9 14 6 11 <5 <5
Napoleon 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 51 70 11 23 6 10
Waverly 20.0 29.0 31.0 : 54 70 9 18 6 11
Miami 18.0 28.0 29.0 : 57 78 8 16 6 12
Glasgow 25.0 27.0 32.0 : 51 67 44 63 11 24
Boonville 21.0 30.0 34.0 : 54 70 10 13 <5 5
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 17.0 18.0 25.0 : 51 77 49 73 17 48
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 23.0 28.0 35.0 : 7 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:102 River
Maryville 18.0 23.0 28.0 : 17 44 8 11 <5 <5
Rosendale 18.0 18.1 23.0 : 25 48 24 47 <5 5
:Platte River
Agency 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 74 82 44 59 5 5
:Little Platte River
Smithville 27.0 30.5 35.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Platte River
Sharps Station 26.0 29.0 33.0 : 60 66 39 53 17 25
Platte City 20.0 25.0 29.0 : 64 76 27 38 11 23
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 35.0 39.0 48.0 : 23 23 7 8 <5 <5
Bannister Road Ka 34.0 40.0 42.0 : 11 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
71 Highway Kansas 27.0 36.0 38.0 : 15 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
63rd Street Kansa 26.0 33.0 37.0 : 16 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
Colorado Avenue K 31.0 36.0 37.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Stadium Drive Kan 33.0 39.0 43.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
17th Street Kansa 33.0 36.0 38.0 : 6 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
12th Street Kansa 30.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Lake City 18.0 25.0 27.0 : 39 35 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Crooked River
Richmond 20.0 21.0 29.0 : 66 76 61 73 <5 <5
:Wakenda Creek
Carrollton 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 63 67 51 55 14 20
:Blackwater River
Valley City 22.0 25.0 31.0 : 82 88 76 82 26 29
Blue Lick 24.0 29.0 37.0 : 84 95 56 61 9 9
:Lamine River
Otterville 15.0 18.0 26.0 : 65 68 51 53 9 11
:Moniteau Creek
Fayette 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 75 76 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Petite Saline Creek
Boonville 16.0 19.5 26.0 : 66 78 51 63 <5 <5
:Thompson River
Trenton 27.0 31.0 34.0 : 26 42 10 10 <5 <5
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 25.0 30.0 32.0 : 37 56 28 45 21 33
Gallatin 26.0 33.0 39.0 : 43 55 8 18 <5 5
Chillicothe 24.0 28.0 35.0 : 64 73 46 58 23 31
Sumner 26.0 28.0 40.0 : 81 84 79 80 6 5
Brunswick 19.0 27.0 33.0 : 59 73 14 26 5 6
:Chariton River
Novinger 20.0 23.0 26.0 : 26 34 18 21 9 10
Prairie Hill 15.0 19.0 21.0 : 63 73 23 31 10 10
:South Grand River
Urich 24.0 26.0 33.0 : 65 59 39 37 <5 <5
:Big Creek
Blairstown 20.0 23.0 36.0 : 95 94 82 74 <5 <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 28.0 45.0 48.0 : 44 48 <5 <5 <5 <5
La Cygne 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 58 54 38 39 <5 <5
Trading Post 27.0 29.0 40.0 : 47 44 39 40 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah 5.6 8.0 13.6 20.4 26.7 28.7 29.4
:Stranger Creek
Easton 9.4 14.4 17.5 19.6 21.0 22.0 23.7
Tonganoxie 9.5 13.2 17.2 23.1 25.3 25.9 27.1
:Kansas River
De Soto 8.3 8.6 10.6 13.4 19.1 21.6 26.9
Turner Bridge KCK 10.2 11.4 15.3 20.2 27.5 33.8 42.4
23rd Street KCK 15.0 15.7 18.5 22.3 28.7 34.6 43.5
:Missouri River
St Joseph 6.9 8.0 11.2 15.4 18.2 23.3 27.2
Atchison 9.1 10.7 15.0 19.3 21.9 26.8 29.9
Leavenworth 4.0 5.3 9.3 14.6 18.2 23.5 28.2
Parkville 10.0 10.9 15.4 18.6 21.2 25.9 31.4
Kansas City 12.7 13.3 17.6 20.3 26.0 30.9 38.5
Napoleon 9.9 10.4 14.6 17.2 21.5 25.3 31.7
Waverly 13.7 14.3 18.1 21.1 24.4 28.1 31.3
Miami 10.8 11.8 16.9 20.3 24.0 27.4 29.8
Glasgow 16.4 18.4 21.9 25.7 29.3 32.8 37.7
Boonville 12.5 14.9 17.9 22.3 26.4 29.8 32.7
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 7.0 8.6 11.9 17.7 24.5 25.6 28.6
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 7.2 9.2 10.1 11.6 15.7 18.4 25.0
:102 River
Maryville 9.1 10.9 12.7 14.5 16.7 20.6 25.2
Rosendale 7.0 10.2 12.9 15.9 18.0 21.0 22.8
:Platte River
Agency 12.6 16.1 19.8 24.7 26.7 28.1 29.8
:Little Platte River
Smithville 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.9 18.8 20.9 26.5
:Platte River
Sharps Station 14.9 19.9 22.1 27.3 31.5 33.6 35.2
Platte City 12.3 17.0 18.6 22.2 25.6 29.5 31.3
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 26.8 27.4 29.2 31.2 34.3 38.5 39.4
Bannister Road Ka 7.8 12.8 15.3 20.2 28.2 35.3 36.1
71 Highway Kansas 7.0 12.5 15.1 18.4 24.1 30.6 31.6
63rd Street Kansa 10.4 14.1 15.8 18.8 23.3 29.9 31.3
Colorado Avenue K 9.9 13.6 15.3 17.8 21.3 27.3 28.7
Stadium Drive Kan 9.1 13.5 15.6 19.3 23.5 30.1 31.9
17th Street Kansa 13.0 17.5 19.0 21.9 26.2 31.7 33.3
12th Street Kansa 9.1 12.6 14.1 16.6 20.9 27.0 28.5
:Little Blue River
Lake City 5.8 7.1 8.5 16.4 19.6 22.9 23.8
:Crooked River
Richmond 9.9 14.2 18.9 21.9 24.5 26.6 27.1
:Thompson River
Trenton 14.8 15.4 19.6 22.7 27.1 31.0 32.4
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 4.7 6.0 12.5 21.3 31.0 34.0 41.6
Gallatin 6.8 7.4 15.4 24.4 30.9 32.7 37.2
Chillicothe 10.5 11.6 18.3 26.6 34.2 38.9 40.5
Sumner 16.4 18.8 30.6 33.4 36.1 38.1 40.4
Brunswick 11.7 13.4 17.4 21.1 25.3 27.8 34.0
:Chariton River
Novinger 2.6 5.5 10.7 16.2 20.1 25.8 27.8
Prairie Hill 5.6 8.9 14.0 16.3 18.6 21.2 23.3
:South Grand River
Urich 14.5 17.2 21.7 25.1 27.5 28.9 29.8
:Big Creek
Blairstown 19.5 21.9 23.3 24.3 26.0 27.0 27.1
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 16.8 17.9 21.8 26.8 33.1 36.6 37.7
La Cygne 9.7 13.0 20.3 29.1 32.6 33.5 33.9
Trading Post 12.8 15.7 19.7 26.1 33.2 37.2 38.2
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:Stranger Creek
Easton 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.5
Tonganoxie 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5
:Kansas River
De Soto 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7
:Missouri River
St Joseph 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.4
Atchison 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.1
Parkville 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.4
Kansas City 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.8
Napoleon 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.2
Waverly 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.5
Miami 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8
Glasgow 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.5 7.2 6.9 6.7
Boonville 4.5 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.7
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.7
:102 River
Maryville 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9
Rosendale 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Platte River
Agency 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5
:Little Platte River
Smithville 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1
:Platte River
Sharps Station 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6
Platte City 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4
Bannister Road Ka 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
71 Highway Kansas 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
63rd Street Kansa 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9
Colorado Avenue K 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4
Stadium Drive Kan 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8
17th Street Kansa 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1
12th Street Kansa 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6
:Little Blue River
Lake City 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5
:Crooked River
Richmond 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.3
:Thompson River
Trenton 10.2 10.2 9.9 8.9 8.0 8.0 8.0
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.0
Gallatin 3.7 3.5 3.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Chillicothe 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.4 3.2 3.1
Sumner 7.8 7.8 7.5 6.8 6.5 6.2 6.2
:Chariton River
Novinger 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Prairie Hill 2.7 2.6 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2
:South Grand River
Urich 4.7 4.6 3.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:Big Creek
Blairstown 8.4 8.3 7.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
La Cygne 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.5
Trading Post 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.2
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water
information.
$$
SAW