324
FXUS64 KEPZ 172025
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
225 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

Temperatures will warm each afternoon through Sunday. Winds will
be relatively light to start the weekend but become breezier by
Sunday. Winds will peak on Monday and Tuesday while temperatures
decrease some. Wednesday and Thursday will feature seasonal warmth
and afternoon breezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

An UL ridge is building in/ translating east into the area in the
wake of yesterday`s system. Drier and warmer air is in place
although lingering energy on the back-side of the system is
fostering some cumulus clouds. At 215 PM, a thunderstorm was
noted over the Otero Mesa. Impacts will be minimal, and most
locations will remain dry through tonight as the ridge continues
to build in and the system exits. Saturday will see weather pretty
similar to today, except it will be warmer and drier.

By Sunday, the ridge slides far enough to our east while a semi-
permanent trough sets up to our west to place us in persistent
west to southwest flow aloft. Temperatures will near 100 in El
Paso on Sunday and perhaps Monday. For Sunday, the trough will
only foster some breezes, but the trough slides closer on Monday
to ramp up wind a few ticks with a s/w trough axis timed for
around midnight Tuesday. The main impact will be increased fire
concerns, but the passing trough axis will push highs back closer
to normal though still above for Tuesday. A second trough axis
swings through on Tuesday allowing for fairly similar weather
conditions as compared to Monday. It will also drop our
temperatures a few more degrees going into Wednesday. We finish
the period remaining in west to southwest flow with highs near
normal and with more afternoon breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR conditions expected today with SKC-FEW100-150/250. Winds peak
around 10 knots this afternoon with a few gusts to around 20.
Direction will generally be from the southwest to west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

A very dry air mass is expected to persist for the entire forecast
period. Min RH values will drop into the single digits each
afternoon. For Friday and Saturday, winds will generally stay
under 10 MPH, but winds will increase to around 15 MPH for Sunday.
Winds will be close to critical levels on Monday though some
uncertainty on magnitude remains. Nevertheless, with exceptionally
dry air (4-8 min RH values), dry fuels, and abnormal warmth (5-10
degrees above warmer), I elected to issue a fire weather watch
for our NM zones. Chances of exceeding critical winds are roughly
40-60 with probabilities decreasing across southern portions of
Otero and Dona Ana County. Texas is not included within the watch
as winds are forecast to be lighter there. Tuesday looks similar
in conditions for Monday, so future weather headlines may be
needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  65  97  68  98 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            59  90  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               59  95  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               55  92  60  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               42  70  49  70 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    58  91  60  93 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              52  83  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   54  93  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                53  90  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       62  93  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                53  95  58  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             56  96  60 100 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               58  87  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   58  95  62  98 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             57  92  60  94 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           65  93  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            55  92  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    55  94  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 59  93  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                56  91  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  49  82  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                47  80  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 46  79  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  50  84  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                55  90  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                52  91  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             47  84  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   50  87  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    52  90  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               53  85  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  53  86  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   53  91  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  53  91  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           53  91  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               54  85  55  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown