156
FXUS64 KEWX 301758
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1258 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Low clouds continue to spread and push from to the middle Texas
coast into our local area as of 3 AM. Surface observations are
showing a southeasterly wind flow of 5 to 10 MPH with gusts as high
as 23 MPH along the Rio Grande. Fog development is not a concern
this morning for the most part as long as the wind stays up, which
looks to be the case. However, can`t rule out a few locations with
patchy fog especially the escarpment by daybreak. Otherwise, cloudy
skies are forecast for the morning period with partly cloudy skies
dominating the local area this afternoon. High temperatures range
from the mid to upper 80s across the eastern two-thirds of South
Central Texas with low 90s along the Rio Grande. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is likely to be limited today especially
during the morning hours. Once the afternoon period arrives, the
potential for a shower or storm to develop is there with best
chances across the Coastal Plains. Another area with a slight
potential for an isolated shower or storm is the western half of Val
Verde County as strong to severe storms form ahead of the dry-line.
Any shower or storm activity that manages to develop comes to an end
this evening.

Clouds return tonight into Wednesday with lows in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Patchy fog is forecast for the Hill Country and along the I-
35 corridor overnight into Wednesday morning. Clouds linger around
all day on Wednesday with highs in the 80s for the most part.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
most areas but especially along and east of Highway 281 on Wednesday
afternoon. Some of these storms could be strong to marginally severe
with main threats being large hail and damaging wind gusts. Also,
stronger storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours in a
short period of time with pwats around 1.8 inches based on forecast
soundings and induced minor street flooding and over poor drainage
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing by Wednesday evening over
parts of our area due to the approach of an upper level shortwave,
as well as off a dryline in western Texas and Serranias del Burro of
Mexico. They will likely become organized into clusters Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, although a few supercells can still be
expected. They will be fed by a strengthening moist southerly low
level jet while steered to the east by the flow aloft. Forecast
soundings show high CAPE and ample shear for strong to severe storms
with large hail and damaging winds possible. Above seasonal normal
PWS indicate a potential for heavy rains where cells train or stall.

As they move off to the east, the airmass may stabilize on Thursday.
However, heating, a weak mid level impulse passing overhead, the
dryline into Val Verde County, and perhaps leftover surface
boundaries should generate showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon into evening.

The forecast remains somewhat uncertain with respect to the coverage
and timing of showers and thunderstorms for Friday through Sunday.
The latest (30/00Z) model suite has trended to keeping the frontal
impacts out of our area. Meanwhile, a series of mid level impulses
move over our area in a westerly flow aloft. In addition, there is
the dryline in western Texas and flow up the Serranias del Burro of
Mexico. These features along with heating should generate slight to
low chances of showers and thunderstorms. Can`t rule out a strong to
severe storm or two, as well as locally heavy downpours each day.

Early next week, the Subtropical Ridge tries to gain some influence
and combined with flow off the Mexican Plateau will lead to no POPs
and warmer, summer like, temperatures. Otherwise, above normal
temperatures prevail later this week through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

MVFR ceilings are hanging in at DRT and AUS, but should lift to VFR
within the next hour. All terminals will be VFR through the
afternoon and evening. Low ceilings will develop again overnight at
all area airports and eventually drop to IFR. Wednesday morning will
bring slow improvement. There is a chance for convection Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  84  72  85 /   0  50  60  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  84  71  84 /   0  50  50  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  85  72  86 /   0  50  50  40
Burnet Muni Airport            70  82  70  84 /   0  40  70  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  89  75  95 /  20  30  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  83  70  84 /   0  40  60  50
Hondo Muni Airport             70  85  70  85 /  10  40  50  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  84  71  85 /   0  50  50  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  84  73  84 /   0  40  40  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  84  72  85 /   0  50  50  40
Stinson Muni Airport           73  86  73  86 /   0  50  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...04
Aviation...05