421
FXUS64 KEWX 300030
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
730 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

We have updated the forecast to add a mention of showers and
thunderstorms through mid-evening across the coastal plains region.
We could see a strong storm or two over the next hour or so, with
activity expected to weaken with the loss of daytime heating.
Otherwise, only minor changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Quiet weather is expected this afternoon and evening outside of the
potential for a stray thunderstorm across the far southeastern
portion of the Coastal Plains as an outflow boundary from convection
over the Gulf of Mexico continues to move inland. Any storm that
fires in this environment will have the potential to become severe
with current SBCAPE values around 4,000 J/kg and effective shear
around 35-50 kts based on the latest SPC Mesoanalysis data.
Otherwise, we can expect low status and areas of patchy fog to
redevelop overnight/early Tuesday morning. Closer to sunrise, we may
start to see some patchy drizzle/light rain showers begin to develop
across mainly southern portions of the area as well.

Tomorrow afternoon, there will once again be a low potential for an
isolated storm or two to develop along the seabreeze and/or any
lingering boundary from today`s convection across southern portions
of the Coastal Plains. There is a better chance for storms to fire
along a dryline out in west Texas and along the SDB Mountains in
Mexico. This activity will try to push west into our area through
the evening hours, but more likely than not will struggle to do so
before dissipating. Low clouds and patchy fog looks likely again
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move over TX in
westerly flow aloft during the first part of the long term period.
The first will combine with a dryline in the boundary layer and bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and night.
There may be sufficient bouyancy and vertical wind shear to produce
strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Large hail
and isolated tornadoes are the main threat. Another upper disturbance
will bring chances for convection Thursday afternoon and evening.
Friday a cold front will move through Central Texas and then through
our CWA Friday night. This will bring another chance for showers and
thunderstorms, but it looks like it will be a weak boundary and
chances are low. The front will stall in the region and another upper
shortwave trough will move across Saturday making convection possible
again. Another dryline could generate storms Sunday afternoon and
evening. Weak ridging will bring dry weather Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

No significant changes were made to the ongoing aviation forecasts.
Some convection over the coastal plains will stay east of the I-35
terminals. We will see an outflow boundary move across SAT and SSF
and have introduced a TEMPO group through 02Z for gusty southeast
winds behind the boundary. MVFR cigs develop quickly by early Tuesday
morning across all TAF sites, with IFR expected along the I-35
corridor. We will also need to monitor for the possibility of some
IFR cigs out west at DRT. Clouds remain intact through the morning
hours, with VFR returning by early afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              67  89  71  85 /   0  10   0  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  64  88  70  85 /   0  10   0  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  89  71  86 /   0  10   0  40
Burnet Muni Airport            65  87  70  83 /   0   0   0  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  96  75  90 /  10   0  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  87  70  83 /   0   0   0  30
Hondo Muni Airport             68  90  70  86 /   0   0   0  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  88  70  85 /   0  10   0  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  87  71  84 /   0  10   0  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  88  71  85 /   0  10   0  40
Stinson Muni Airport           69  89  73  86 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...Platt