000
FXUS62 KFFC 191106
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
706 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Key Messages:

 - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across N
   GA late tonight and early Friday morning.

 - More thunderstorms will accompany a cold front sinking into N GA
   this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms may be strong.

A large upper low will continue to march E across Ontario and S
Hudson Bay. Over the local area, upper NW flow will become more
zonal today and tonight. At the surface, a cold front from the OH
Valley to the Arklatex region will gradually sink SE into N GA this
afternoon and evening.

After a lull in convection late Thursday evening, scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms have developed across N AL during the
past couple of hours. With little in the way of dynamic support,
this activity is being supported by low-level convergence and fairly
decent nighttime instability. Activity was initially moving almost
due E, but now appears to be moving more ESE to SW. Instability
appears to be slowly waning with increasing CIN. However, expect at
least shower activity to hold together as this convection moves
toward the Atlanta metro area, and isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible.

A broken line of stronger thunderstorms is ongoing along and just
ahead of the surface front, with the most organized storms over W
TN. This activity, along with leading outflows, will continue to
march SE toward N GA through the day. The models are not handling
ongoing convection particularly well, but still expect scattered
storms to enter N GA by early afternoon. The extent of these storms
will likely be affected by how worked over the atmosphere is from
early morning convection along with persistence of residual cloud
cover. A few storms could be strong. Wind shear will not be
particularly strong. The main threats from thunderstorms will be
gusty winds and hail.

Cooler air will begin to filter into the area from the N early
Saturday morning. High temperatures on Saturday are forecast to
range from near 70 across the extreme N to near 90 SE of Macon.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along and S of the cold
front generally near and S of Macon, mainly Saturday afternoon.

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Highlights:

-Another round of rain expected Sunday with thunder chances
 confined to south GA.

-Drier and cooler conditions return next week.

Lingering showers and thunderstorms may still be present at the
start of the long term period (Saturday night) with a frontal
boundary draped across south-central GA. A weak midlevel impulse
will move across the Southeast on Sunday accompanied by an
additional wave of moisture. This will ramp up rain chances during
the day Sunday for much of North and Central Georgia. Latest
ensemble guidance continues to back off on sufficient instability
and forecast soundings indicate generally stable conditions setting
up across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area. Thus,
elected to keep any thunder chances confined to far south-central GA
(south of a line from Columbus to Macon). A secondary more prominent
shortwave will drop south late Sunday accompanied by a cold front
which will bring an end to precipitation from west to east. Much
drier and cooler air will filter in behind as surface high pressure
builds across much of the south and eastern U.S. Dry conditions will
prevail through most of the work week with rain potentially
creeping back into the forecast in time for the weekend.

Cooler conditions can be expected on Sunday as a result of clouds
and rain with high temperatures largely in the upper 50s to 60s (70s
across extreme southeast GA). In the wake of the cold frontal
passage, temperatures on Monday will be in the 60s with low
temperatures 40s. Temperatures will moderate through the week with
forecast high temperatures climbing back into the 70s and low 80s
across south-central GA with forecast low temperatures in the 50s
(and 40s in the NE GA mountains).

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Scattered showers are presently moving across the Atlanta metro
area, with activity grazing ATL. An isolated thunderstorm remains
possible in this activity. More tstm activity is forecast to sag
into N GA this afternoon. As indicated by previous shifts, models
are performing poorly, so confidence in timing and areal extent of
tstms is fairly low.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low-medium for timing and extent of afternoon thunderstorms,
medium-high for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  83  54  61 /  10  10  40  80
Atlanta         61  79  54  60 /  40  10  40  80
Blairsville     55  71  47  57 /  20  10  40  70
Cartersville    58  74  49  58 /  20  10  40  70
Columbus        65  86  57  65 /  10  30  40  80
Gainesville     61  79  54  60 /  10  10  40  80
Macon           65  87  59  67 /  10  30  30  80
Rome            58  74  49  60 /  20  10  40  60
Peachtree City  61  81  52  61 /  20  10  40  80
Vidalia         67  89  65  76 /  10  30  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SEC