117
FNUS73 KFGF 091259
FWSFGF

Spot Forecast for Mjolsness...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
759 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please call the NWS in Grand Forks at 701-795-5127 for additional
information and monitor our website (www.weather.gov/fgf) or NOAA
All-Hazards Radio for the latest updates.

.DISCUSSION...

Northerly winds through today go calm and variable around sunset
remaining near 10 mph and gusting into the mid teens. RH dropping
to 40 percent by noon today with min values near 30 percent from
3pm to 7pm. While mixing heights are high smoke dispersal will
only be good at 80-90000 kt-ft. Winds shifting more northwest
after midnight tonight remaining under 15 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph late in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming north 5 to 10 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast around 5 mph shifting to the north
                    late in the morning, then increasing to 10 to
                    15 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....4700 knot-ft early in the morning increasing to
                    85800 knot-ft in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........11  12  10  8   12  15  19  23  21
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............52  55  59  63  66  67  68  69  68
RH..............57  52  49  46  41  37  34  31  32
20 FT wind dir..E   NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   0   0   5   5   5   10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.    1   5   9   11  12  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.7 2.6 5.2 6.3 7.2 7.5 7.8 7.4
Mixing wind dir.E   NE  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
Mixing wind spd.5   5   5   10  15  10  10  15  15
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5   7   16  53  70  74  75  86  81

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest late in the evening.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the west
                    around 5 mph late in the evening, then shifting
                    to the southwest overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....88200 knot-ft early in the evening decreasing
                    to 1800 knot-ft late in the night.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........20     32     21     29     18     56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............68     64     57     54     52     51
RH..............31     35     47     53     59     66
20 ft wind......N 10   N 5    NW 5   SW 5   SW 5   SW 5
20 ft wind gust.13     9      6      7      9      9
Mix hgt (ft)....7200   700    400    400    300    300
Mixing wind.....N 15   N 10   NW 10  W 5    SW 10  SW 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..88     6      3      2      2      3

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds around 10 mph shifting to
                    the northwest early in the morning, then
                    increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 10 to 15 mph increasing to around 30
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....3600 knot-ft early in the morning increasing to
                    89800 knot-ft in the afternoon increasing to
                    (160900 knot-ft) in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........24        27        30        30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............50        57        64        67
RH..............76        62        43        31
20 FT wind......W 10G13   N 15G20   N 20G25   NW 25G29
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1800      7000      9400
Mixing wind.....NW 10     NW 15     NW 25     NW 30
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4         27        162       245

$$
Forecaster...TT
Requested by...Eric Hoff
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413506.1/FGF
.DELDT 05/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ehoff@tnc.org