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000
FXUS65 KGGW 112042
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
242 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Temperatures well above normal through the weekend with a few
  isolated convective rain showers and thunderstorms

- Pattern change with much colder temperatures and precipitation
  by Tuesday, including snowfall potential

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Temperatures warm quickly into the weekend with the arrival of an
upper level ridge, bringing widespread highs in the 70s. A Pacific
trough and upper level low will dig unusually far south along the
West Coast during the weekend. This feature will gradually
provide more of a moisture source. Combined with anomalously high
CAPE for April, this could lead to a few convective showers later
on each of the next several days (especially Monday). A second
and stronger system dives south from the Gulf of Alaska and this
will bring a pattern change with at least a taste of winter
weather returning. Depending on how much cold air gets brought
into the area and moisture remaining at night, higher elevations
in particular will see accumulating snow midweek.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

There is high confidence in the overall temperature trends. The
deterministic NBM was biased between the 10th-25th percentile over
the next few days for high temperatures, so nudged the base
forecast to near the 50th percentile. The chance for fire weather
conditions on Friday with winds greater than RH is low around 20%,
but will bear watching with rapid warming and southerly winds
increasing in the afternoon. Confidence is moderate on the
evolution of next week`s system, with higher confidence in a
widespread wetting rain and lower confidence on any impacts from
late season snow accumulation occurring.

-Zanker

&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED: 2000Z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

DISCUSSION: Dry conditions continue for the TAF sites through
Friday with scattered mid-level clouds. Winds shift toward the
southeast and increase to 10-20 knots after 09Z.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow