Flood Potential Outlook Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
000
FGUS75 KGJT 152050
ESFGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-
107-111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-222100-
Water Supply Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
150 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2024
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH ISSUANCE NUMBER 1...
...Hydrologic Service Area (HSA)...
The Grand Junction HSA falls almost entirely within the Upper
Colorado River Basin, and provides a population of over 40 million
people with water across the southwestern US. The area encompasses
seven basins including; the Upper Green River Basin and the
Duchesne River Basin in eastern Utah, and the Yampa and White
River Basins, Upper Colorado River Mainstem, Gunnison River Basin,
Dolores and San Miguel River Basins, and the Upper San Juan River
Basin in western Colorado. Each river and their tributaries feed
the Colorado River above Lake Powell, and are primarily fed by
snowpack accumulation (typically) from November - April. As the
snow melts in the spring, the Upper Colorado River Basin begins to
fill lakes, rivers, streams, reservoirs and trans-basin
diversions from Denver to Los Angeles. Thus, seasonal water supply
and resource outlooks across the Grand Junction HSA are crucial to
water management during the late winter and early spring, in order to
support various sectors including hydropower, agriculture, recreation,
and municipal uses that in turn support the needs of a vast population.
...Water Supply Outlooks Summary/Key Messages...
The potential for spring flooding due to snowmelt is low at this
time, and season water supply volumes remain below to near normal
for the Upper Colorado River Basin.
Water supply guidance as a percentage of average (as of February
14th) for the April through July runoff period are listed below:
Yampa/White 75-95%
Upper CO Mainstem 80-115%
Gunnison 65-95%
Dolores 65-80%
San Juan 65-85%
Upper Green 65-90%
Duchesne 75-105%
Forecast volumes, attm, are expected to range near normal due to
average precipitation and snowpack accumulated thus far, Oct -
Feb.
NOTE: In normal years, additional snowpack can accumulate in the
mountains through the first half of April. However, it`s worth
noting that precipitation, strong winds and blowing dust, a cold
spring or unseasonably warm spring during the snowmelt season can
greatly affect total runoff volume and timing of peak flow.
...Water Year Conditions...
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Observed Precipitation
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Below normal precipitation in December into early January led to
a slow start to the water year`s total precipitation. Fortunately,
a more active pattern returned to the Western Slope by mid
January. These series of storms brought relief to winter`s
snowpack, and resulted in above average precipitation for the
month of January. Storms continued to bring accumulating snow into the
beginning half of February, raising the total 2024 water year
precipitation to near normal conditions across most high elevation
basins.
Western Colorado and eastern Utah Water Year Precipitation as of
February 14th:
Yampa/White 100%
Upper CO Mainstem 100%
Gunnison 95%
Dolores/San Miguel 90%
San Juan 90%
Duchesne 105%
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Observed Snowpack
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Due to the slow start to the Water Year, observed snowpack has
struggled to pump up above normal thus far. However, the above
average monthly precipitation by the end of January and
additional storms in early February have improved snowpack conditions
region wide. As of February 14th, snowpack across western Colorado
and eastern Utah averages just below to near normal.
Yampa/White 95%
Upper CO Mainstem 95%
Gunnison 100%
Dolores/San Miguel 105%
San Juan 95%
Duchesne 110%
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Soil Moisture
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An abnormally high spring runoff in 2023 improved soil moisture
conditions and even removed the entire HSA from the US Drought
Monitor by June. However, a delayed monsoon in the heat of summer
led to increasing evaporation/ evapotrasporation, especially
across the high elevations of southwest Colorado. As a result, soil
conditions worsened and dropped below normal by Fall (November).
Conditions worsen from north to south, with southwest Colorado
mountains dropping below 50 percent of normal in some areas.
Antecedent soil moisture can impact the efficiency of early
spring runoff. Thus, water supply forecasts for basins with above
average soil moisture tend to experience more efficient
runoff from rainfall and snowmelt, while basins with below average
antecedent conditions show less efficient runoff until soil
saturation is reached.
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STATUS of RESERVOIR STORAGE FOR WFO Grand Junction Reservoirs
PERIOD ENDING: January 31, 2024
Figures are in 1000 Acre Feet
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C U R R E N T Y R L A S T Y R 1991-2020
EOM % of % of EOM % of JAN 31 Usable
Storage Average Capacity Storage Average Avg Storage Capacity
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GUNNISON - BLUE MESA | 568.3| 110| 69|| 295.4| 57|| 515.2| 827.9|
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GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE| 16.7| 111| 95|| 16.5| 110|| 15.0| 17.5|
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CRAWFORD RESERVOIR | 6.1| M| 43|| 2.0| M|| M| 14.1|
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FRUIT GROWERS DAM - A| 1.6| M| 36|| 1.9| M|| M| 4.5|
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FLORIDA - LEMON RESER| 15.7| 87| 39|| 17.0| 94|| 18.1| 39.8|
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DOLORES - MCPHEE RESE| 291.9| 114| 77|| 189.1| 74|| 256.3| 381.1|
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GUNNISON - MORROW POI| 111.2| 101| 95|| 104.5| 95|| 109.9| 117.0|
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MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES| 1.8| 69| 11|| 1.2| 45|| 2.6| 16.7|
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UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY| 64.5| 96| 78|| 69.3| 103|| 67.5| 83.0|
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RIFLE CK - RIFLE GAP | 12.5| M| 102|| 4.2| M|| M| 12.2|
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FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE| 75.9| 107| 74|| 65.0| 92|| 70.8| 102.0|
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CIMARRON - SILVER JAC| 1.2| 23| 9|| 1.9| 38|| 5.1| 13.0|
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TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK | 72.2| 106| 68|| 65.4| 96|| 68.1| 106.2|
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LOS PINOS - VALLECITO| 63.8| 93| 51|| 71.8| 105|| 68.5| 125.4|
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GREEN - FLAMING GORGE| 3131.4| 102| 84|| 2496.9| 81|| 3081.2| 3749.0|
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COLORADO - LAKE POWEL| 8138.1| 56| 33|| 5462.4| 38|| 14430.3| 24322.0|
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MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS
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The spring runoff flood potential will be re-evaluated in early March
and an updated product will be issued at that time.
LOCATION FLOOD FCST FORECAST FLOWS
FLOW DATE 90% 75% 50% 25% 10%
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YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS 5923 2024-03-01
ELK - MILNER, NR 5916 2024-03-01
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR 21200 2024-03-01
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR 15271 2024-03-01
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK 20744 2024-03-01
WHITE - MEEKER, NR 8906 2024-03-01
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR 2200 2024-03-01
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE 2000 2024-03-01
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC 300 2024-03-01
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO 6000 2024-03-01
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR 17000 2024-03-01
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A 3200 2024-03-01
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S 13000 2024-03-01
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR 26000 2024-03-01
EAST - ALMONT 3100 2024-03-01
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N 11000 2024-03-01
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE 1330 2024-03-01
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION 21000 2024-03-01
DOLORES - RICO, BLO 1750 2024-03-01
DOLORES - DOLORES 6700 2024-03-01
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE, -999 2024-03-01
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI 46000 2024-03-01
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS 4600 2024-03-01
ANIMAS - DURANGO 10600 2024-03-01
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON 9000 2024-03-01
MANCOS - MANCOS, NR 810 2024-03-01
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CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK AND FORECAST CONDITIONS
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The current ENSO phase remains as El Nino, however, a La Nina
Watch is now on the horizon. During January, above-average sea
surface temperatures (SST) were detected, though SST anomalies
have weakened. As such El Nino conditions are present but are
expected to transition to ENSO-neutral in the Northern hemisphere
during spring 2024, with La Nina potentially developing by summer.
Despite the weakening El Nino, Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
outlooks still reflect El Nino impacts on the United States
through April 2024. This means the southwestern US is likely
to see above normal precipitation through March. An area with
precipitation probabilities leaning toward above normal stretches
into eastern Utah and western Colorado, though, the probability
decreases the from southwest to northeast. Temperature outlooks keep
equal chances for above or below normal values for northeast Utah and
northwest Colorado. However, below normal temperatures are likely
across the Four Corners region.
On a shorter-scale timeframe, CPC outlooks maintain likely above
normal precip across the Desert Southwest thanks to the potential
Atmospheric River (AR) impacting the Western CONUS over the next 6
to 10 Days. Southern California typically wrings out the bulk of
AR moisture, though remnants may trickle across the inter-mountain
west and keep the potential for accumulating snow across the high
country through the coming weeks.
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Additional information is available at weather.gov/gjt.
For detailed flow forecasts visit www.cbrfc.noaa.gov.
Data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service...the
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center...and the Climate Prediction
Center were used to create this product.
$$