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000
FXUS64 KHUN 131536
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1036 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1036 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Strong NW flow aloft in place over the TN Valley will gradually
weaken throughout the day, as the axis of a mid/upper-level
longwave trough axis lifts northeastward across New England. In
the lower-levels, a ridge will remain positioned over the north-
central Gulf of Mexico for much of the day, resulting in a relaxed
pressure gradient and light/variable winds this morning (which
may transition to a slightly stronger SW flow this afternoon as
the ridge begins to drift eastward). With a very dry tropospheric
column noted in forecast soundings, we expect abundant sunshine,
with highs ranging from the l70s atop the higher ridges of
northeast AL/southern TN to the u70s-l80s in northwest AL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The surface high pressure to our SW will translate east across the
FL peninsula Sunday into Monday yet remain the dominating weather
feature throughout the short term forecast. Sunday, we will again
find ourselves sandwiched between high pressure to our SE and low
pressure to our north in the Great Lakes Region. Along this axis,
the contracting pressure gradient will allow for an increase in SW
flow both aloft and at the surface. This will be felt on Sunday
with breezy SW winds with gusts of 20-25 MPH possible. The breezy
conditions will likely be welcomed as Sunday looks to be another
warm day with highs in the low 80s. Abundant sunshine and steeper
lapse rates will likely support the development of fair weather
cumulus Sunday afternoon with low potential for light showers
through the evening.

Monday and Tuesday will continue the warming trend with highs
remaining in the low to mid 80s each day. The dominating surface
high pressure will translate into the Atlantic as a low pressure
system forms in the Plains giving us a glimpse at our next chance
for rain. As the low pressure system moves east, cloud cover will
increase ahead of it throughout the day on Tuesday. Tuesday looks
to remain dry with rain chances ramping up Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

By sunset on Tuesday the cold front associated with the
approaching low pressure system will be moving out of the Plains
and into the MS Valley. Rain chances will increase overnight on
Tuesday with best chances for rain (40-60%) associated with the
passage of the cold front Wednesday during the day. There is
currently low confidence in seeing severe weather with this system
as the arrival of rain overnight will have very little
instability to work with and ongoing rain on Wednesday morning
will likely prevent daytime destabilization. Should the timing
speed up, there could be higher chances for strong to severe
storms Tuesday evening.

A brief dry slot will be present on Wednesday night before rain
chances pick back up Thursday afternoon as a secondary cold front
moves through. Better forcing for showers looks to be to our north
leaving us with a prolonged period of low to medium (20-50%) rain
chances from Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon. Rain chances
drop off Friday evening leaving us with a clear but cool start to
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Winds will increase slightly during the day from the west and
back to the WSW after sunset. Light winds and clear skies will
allow for VFR conditions through the duration of the TAF period
at both terminals.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...RAD
LONG TERM...RAD
AVIATION...RAD