National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KHUN 170413
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1113 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 921 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

An upper-low will shift northeast from the central Plains into
the Great Lakes, with its associated cold front pushing eastward
across the Mid South/Lower-Mississippi Valley. It will approach
the Tennessee Valley late tonight into early Wednesday morning.
Dense cloud cover and some very isolated light rain showers have
begun to work their way into the area. However, dry air near the
surface is generally keeping this rain very light -- with most
locations remaining dry. However, as the overnight hours progress,
the boundary layer will continue to moisten, with low chances
for rain showers (20-30%) around/after Midnight -- with PoPs
increasing into the 30-50% range across western portions of the
region close to day break. An embedded rumble of thunder or two
may also occur, but these storms will remain elevated in nature.
The dense cloud cover and southerly winds will make for a mild
night with lows in the low to mid 60s being common in most
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Expect to see scattered to numerous showers and storms (30-60%) in
the area by tomorrow morning, and will continue to monitor the
threat for a few strong to severe storms. High res guidance
generally favors a weakening trend as storms move east away from
the stronger forcing with the cold front and the better
instability lagging behind the main line of storms. Still, a few
of these storms may produce gusty winds and marginally severe
hail. Expect these storms to move south and east of the area by
later in the afternoon, with a dry forecast from tomorrow night
through Thursday afternoon. High temps on Thursday will once again
reach the low to mid 80s with southwest flow becoming breezy at
times.

From here, models diverge a bit regarding the formation of a
second sfc low and when the cold front will make its way through
the area. Have stuck with blended guidance at this time,
increasing rain chances beginning Thursday afternoon through
Friday morning. SPC has also highlighted portions of the local
area in a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) on Thursday afternoon when a low
threat for strong/severe storms will exist. This remains low
confidence given the range in timing solutions, but will keep
monitoring forecast trends in hopes of better consistency. Will
keep low to medium chances (30-60%) for storms in the forecast
through Friday afternoon. Once the front does make it through the
area, cooler temperatures will follow with highs in the mid to
upper 70s and breezy northwest winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The forecast over the weekend is a bit messy with the frontal
boundary shifting into the deep South. Shortwaves within the
basically zonal flow across the southern U.S. will produce
multiple areas of rain and thunderstorms, particularly just to our
south. For our area, rain chances will be "medium" or in the
30-50% range. A stronger shortwave will eventually drop southeast
through the main upper trough position across the north central
and northeast U.S. Sunday into early Monday, sweeping the rain
chances away to the east. This will bring a somewhat dramatic cool
down (at least comparably to the 80s we are seeing now). Highs
Sunday will only be in the lower to middle 60s, then recover to
the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday after morning lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

LLWS is expected for the next several hours through 13-16Z. VFR
flight weather conditions will transition to MVFR by 13-16Z as an
area of SHRA and TSRA moves west to east across north AL and
southern middle TN. Ceilings will drop into the 010-020 AGL range
at times as this precipitation moves through. By 18-20Z, ceilings
will climb to ~025 AGL for a few hours before lifting at or above
050agl (VFR) by 20-23Z.

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17