577
FXUS63 KICT 011959
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
259 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible this evening for areas generally along
  and west of Highway 14.

- Storm chances remain for late tonight into Thursday and again
  for late Friday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Currently have an upper low situated over the Northern Rockies
with a vort lobe rotating across eastern portions of the Great
Basin. At the surface, low pressure is deepening across
southeast CO with a warm front extending from north of Garden
City to north of Dodge City with a dryline extending from south
of Garden City down into the TX Panhandle. In addition, there
appears to be a weak outflow boundary or tail-end of the warm
front extending from south of Wichita to near Pratt.

Current thinking is that storms will develop along the dryline
over southwest KS late this afternoon or early this evening.
Model trends have been to push initiation slightly further west
with each run. While it`s possible a storm could develop further
northeast along the warm front, confidence is much lower due to
central KS remaining fairly stable and with better convergence
closer to the triple point. So at this point it appears
locations generally along and especially west of Highway 14
would have the best chance to see storms that come off the
dryline, generally after 6-7pm and possibly later. Any storm
that comes off the dryline and affects our forecast area will
have a chance of producing large hail, damaging winds and a
tornado.

In addition to storms off the dryline this evening, we should
also see an MCS track from west to east across Oklahoma.
Meanwhile, elevated storms will increase in coverage tonight
across north central KS into Nebraska as the shortwave starts to
translate east into the central/northern High Plains. Then as
the overnight hours progress a cold front will start to surge
south across the forecast area, reaching central KS after
midnight and Wichita around daybreak. Some low end severe and
strong storms will be possible as the front tracks south with
hail the main threat. Cold front will continue pushing east on
Thursday with southeast KS having the better shower and storm
chances in the afternoon.

Looks like we will finally get a break from storms on Fri as
cold front pushes east and a weak area of surface high pressure
settles over the Plains. Pattern will remain active as yet
another shortwave trough tracks out of the Northern Great Basin
and across the Northern/Central Plains Fri night. This will
allow a cold front to quickly push south across the area,
exiting southeast KS by early Sat afternoon. Confidence is high
that there will be showers and storm tied to the front as it
tracks south. By 12z Sun there is good agreement between the GFS
and ECMWF in a fast moving upper impulse sliding across OK and
into the Ozark region by Sun evening. This will bring shower and
storm chances to much of southern KS Sun into Sun evening.

Attention then turns to our next potent shortwave trough set to
move out of the Great Basin and across the Rockies on Sun night
into Mon morning before going negative tilt over the
Central/Northern Plains on Mon evening. This setup could
potentially lead to a dryline setting up through KS with severe
storms possible. However, with this system still a long ways
off, the timing could change quite a bit.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Elevated southerly return flow/warm advection this morning with
promote scattered showers/storms as the warm front begins to lift
northward toward central Kansas. Areas of MVFR stratus cigs
with localized IFR possible. Focus for convection should shift
northward with the warm front into central Kansas during the
afternoon with some development south into the warm sector
across south central Kansas, some of which will be severe.
Additional showers and storms are expected ahead of the cold
front which will move into central Kansas late tonight.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...KED