Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 261415
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1015 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure continues with more seasonable temperatures
for today. Rain chances will return with the next cold front
Wednesday into Thursday. Dry high pressure then builds in behind
the cold front Friday with a warming trend through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Persistent stratus over New Hanover/Eastern Pender counties is
starting to break up based on visible satellite. Otherwise
forecast seems on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over the mid-Atlantic
and offshore, which maintains an influence on the area. More
cirrus clouds have poured in during the overnight hours, and
that is expected to continue throughout the day. Mid- level
ridging over the area will push offshore this afternoon, with a
broad trough to the west beginning its slow approach to the
coastal Carolinas. Dry forecast in play today, and the modifying
airmass allows highs to reach the upper 60s inland, mid 60s at
the coast. A few spots may even reach 70, depending on cloud
cover.

Moisture continues to pour in from the west tonight, and forcing
in the shortwaves ahead of the main trough will slowly increase
rain chances from west to east after midnight. Coastal regions
should still remain mostly dry, while inland areas will start to
record measurable rain. Lows tonight in the low-to-mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Short Term period continues to be the most active period of the
forecast, as a highly-amplified upr-level trough approaches from
the west, with several lobes of vorticity along its east side
approaching the local area. Maintained the previous forecast of
categorical PoPs from late Wednesday through early Thursday,
with moderate to heavy rain possible as well - forecasting
totals of 2-3 inches most areas with up to 4 inches possible
especially over the Cape Fear region. Model discrepancies
continue over when the rain ends, but the overall trend has
been for a slightly quicker progression offshore Thursday
afternoon and evening. Instability looks meager overall, but
still can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder especially near
the coast. After high temps in the low/mid 70s Wednesday,
expected high temps closer to seasonal norms Thursday (60s).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry weather still expected for the duration of the long term
period with broad sfc high pressure over the SE states. This in
tandem with a slight rise in low-level thickness values will
lead to increasing temps late this week into the weekend...up to
the mid 70s Saturday then upr 70s Sunday, with W/SW flow the
norm under mostly sunny/clear skies. As of now, early next week
appears dry as well as an upr-level ridge moves over the SE
states.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Predominantly VFR throughout the 12Z TAF period. NE flow
gradually shifts to onshore flow by early this afternoon. The
exception might be some slight onshore flow early this morning,
which could cause some brief MVFR ceilings at the coastal
terminals, though confidence is low here. Elsewhere, increased
ceilings should develop tonight ahead of the next system, and
MVFR looks to hit KFLO and KLBT after midnight, getting to the
coastal terminals after 06Z. SHRA possible at the inland
terminals, though it`s tricky to define the exact timing on
this.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions likely Wednesday into
Thursday with increasing rain chances. Forecast dries out late
Thursday night and high pressure returns throughout the weekend,
allowing for widespread VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Small Craft Advisory continues until 11 AM EDT
this morning. ENE winds this morning very gradually veer
southeasterly by tonight, generally lingering at 10-15kts. After
the advisory expires, seas decrease to 3-4ft.

Wednesday through Saturday...A break in the SCA conditions
midweek with 10-15 kt SE flow over the coastal waters with a
weak ridge of high pressure well offshore. Sfc low pressure will
then develop immediately over the area on Thursday, with SCA
conditions in winds, and possibly seas, likely to follow late
Thursday into Thursday night in the NW flow following the sfc
low pushing off to the east. Somewhat improving marine
conditions expected towards the end of the week as sfc high
pressure builds over the SE states.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MAS/IGB


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