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000
FXUS61 KILN 190558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
158 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system moves through the region, bringing
showers and thunderstorms during the overnight hours into
Friday. High pressure then moves in for the weekend, bringing
below normal temperatures and the chance for frost early Sunday
morning. Temperatures remain slightly below normal into the
following work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A decaying MCS will work into the region overnight. It will be
on a weakening trend, however cannot rule out some strong to
severe storms primarily around the Tri-State region.
Precipitation occurring across the region does appear more
certain however and therefore increased precipitation chances.
Went a little cooler than the blend for temperatures overnight
with temperatures already dropping off quite a bit in portions
of the region. Winds will start to pick up as the front starts
to work into the region late in the near term.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
By Friday morning, the low pressure system will have moved off
to the northeast and rain will be tapering to an end across the
CWA. Quite a tight pressure gradient will be in place in the
cold air advection regime, so expecting some gusty northwesterly
winds around 15-20 MPH with gusts to 25-30 MPH, particularly in
west central Ohio. Winds decrease as the day wears on.

Surface high pressure nudges in from the northern Great Plains
and some residual low level moisture remains, keeping partly
cloudy skies in place. High temperatures reach the upper 50s in
west central Ohio and upper 60s along the Ohio River/ Tri-State
region.

Friday night remains dry and cooler, with lows in the mid 40s
area wide as the high pressure continues to nudge into the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will shift southeast across the region
Saturday through Monday. This will lead to dry but seasonably
cool conditions. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 50s to
lower 60s, moderating a bit by Monday to highs in low to mid
60s. Some frost will be possible both Saturday night and Sunday
night as overnight lows drop into the 30s.

In northwest flow aloft, an upper level disturbance will move
southeast across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. An
associated surface low will move across the southern Great Lakes
Tuesday night with a trailing cold front moving through the
Ohio Valley. Ahead of this, showers will become likely Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening. Instability looks to be fairly
limited, so only expect some lower chances for embedded
thunderstorms. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 60s.

High pressure and a drier airmass will settle into the area
Wednesday into Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid
50s to lower 60s with highs on Thursday mostly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will ride northeast along an eastward advancing
cold front through 12Z. Showers and embedded thunderstorms
should continue to decrease in intensity along with areal
coverage as they move east during this period. MVFR conditions,
local IFR visibilities are possible in thunderstorms. Overall
ceilings will lower into the MVFR category with IFR ceilings
arriving after frontal passage.

From 12Z to 18Z, the cold front will advance east/southeast
through the remainder of the region. Precipitation will come to
an end with frontal passage with a period of IFR ceilings
forecast. Winds will become gusty from the northwest between 15
and 25 knots. Ceilings will gradually lift back into the MVFR
category before clearing out from west to east during the
afternoon hours. This will leave just some high level cirrus in
place.

Later in the afternoon and into the evening, locally gusty
northwest winds will eventually subside. Some mid and high level
clouds are possible overnight despite surface high pressure
building into the middle Ohio Valley.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions along with thunderstorms are possible
on Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Hickman