Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 260008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
808 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

A weak upper level disturbance will continue to interact with an
increasingly unstable air mass across the area to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening, mainly across
southwest lower michigan and portions of northwest and far north
central Indiana. An upper level ridge will move into the area
Thursday providing generally fair weather. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible again Thursday night. Lows tonight will be in
the mid 60s with highs Thursday in the lower and middle 80s. It
will remain warm and humid through the Memorial Day weekend with
chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing, though most of
the weekend should be dry.


Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

An upper level short wave working across the western Great Lakes
has aided in shower/thunderstorm development across northeast
Illinois/northwest Indiana late afternoon/early evening. An
eastward progressing axis of deeper moisture will continue to
build across western portions of the forecast area this evening,
although instability magnitudes will start to be temperedsomewhat
by slow boundary layer cooling. Will continue to carry high
chance/likely pops across the far northwest this evening, with
better chances possibly extending across south central lower
Michigan during the late evening hours. Passage of this wave
should result in diminishing coverage of precip overnight and
confidence in any additional rain/storms after 06Z is on the low
side and will maintain inherited slight chance/low chance PoPs


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

While ridging conts to dampen acrs the area...lack of discernible
forcing and as yet poor mstr rtn hampering any notable precip
dvlpmnt acrs the wrn lakes this aftn. MCV advg acrs nrn IA sprtg
an arc of isold-sct convn fm ern MN into ne IA and the primary ftr
of note shrt term as secondary MCV noted acrs se MO slides ewd
through srn IN/nrn KY. 12Z ILX raob alludes to a general hostile
environment aloft w/residual warm air in place although some
cooling does take place further west twd DVN ahd of apchg mid lvl
trough. Thus suspect newd advng ll theta-e ridge and wk ll flw
will fail to produce any convn this aftn and have dropped all pop
mention sans extreme west ahd of apchg mid lvl trough. Srn spoke
of btr low-mid lvl forcing shld graze nw zones this evening and
may yet sputter further se within modest theta-e ridge in place
hwvr any sense of a consensus model solution sorely lacking. As
such and in light of 12Z CAMS trends will sway fm prior likely
pops overnight as primary focus aloft shifts up acrs nrn WI.

In wake of this sys...largely subsident wrly ll flw overspreads the
area on Thu and in light of 12Z mos guidance/trends fail to see any
justification to carry a pop mention.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

General wwd positioning of large scale upr trough and attendant
sfc fntl zone points to lackluster chcs for organized rainfall
through the pd. No doubt upstream convn w/potential downstream MCS
influences complicate the picture...hwvr given stgr mean flw and
deeper ll mstr plume remains well west invof of sfc fntl zone
through the cntrl would be careless to embrace
derived blended guidance pops which are clearly way overdone. Thus
as yda will again cap any one pd to a low chc mention at this
point. More fvrbl chcs may arise twd sun aftn/eve pending ewd
extent and timing of robust wave lifting up through the midwest.

Beyond that upr ridge cntrd ovr the wrn atl xpcd to expand nwd
through dy7 and likely to cap off the local environment as new mean
troughing dvlps through the wrn US. Otrws seasonably warm and humid
conds xpcd through much of the pd.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

An upper level wave will continue to track across the western
Great Lakes this evening allowing for eastward progression of
scattered showers/thunderstorms. Track of this wave should support
greatest shower/thunderstorm coverage just north of KSBN over the
next several hours, but will likely have at least
isolated/scattered showers and a few storms in KSBN vicinity
through this evening. Confidence at KFWA of any showers remains
lower further divorced from the stronger forcing so will limit
mention to VCSH later this evening. Still some potential of MVFR
cigs late tonight/early Thursday morning as boundary layer
moistening occurs overnight, and no significant changes made in
this regard with the 00Z TAFS. A lull in forcing is expected for
most of Thursday with weak short wave ridge building in behind
tonight`s short wave. While an isolated storm cannot completely be
ruled out Thursday, will maintain dry TAFS.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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