Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 180846
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
346 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 335 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

A weak cold front will move southeast into our area today and then
stall out and dissipate tonight. Unseasonably warm temperatures
will continue, though, there should be some cooling this afternoon
over northwest portions of the area. High pressure will move
across the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday providing dry conditions.
A weakening cold front will likely cause showers in the area
Tuesday followed by dry weather Wednesday. A strong low pressure
system is expected to lift slowly northeast from the central plains
toward the upper Midwest late in the week bringing increasing
chances of showers and a few thunderstorms, along with breezy
conditions. Temperatures will remain well above normal through
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Wk shrtwv movg quickly east across srn Ontario/Quebec today will
push a wk cdfnt into our cwa which will stall and wash out
tonight as ridging aloft again builds east from the Plains. H85
temps a little cooler today than yday, but with a much warmer
start to the day, decent mixing, and partly to mostly sunny
skies, temps should top out in the lower to middle 60s once again.
Although CAA wk behind front, flow off Lake Michigan should
result in a noticeable cool off nw this aftn. Ridge building in
tonight along with mostly clear skies should provide decent
radiational cooling n-nw allowing lows to drop into the lower to
middle 30s while south of stalling front lows only expected in the
upr 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Strong upr ridge will move across the cwa Sunday and Monday
providing a continuation of dry weather with unseasonably warm
temps. Deep trof moving into the swrn U.S. this weekend will lift
ne and weaken as it moves into the Grtlks early next week. Still,
appears moisture/forcing accompanying this system will be
sufficient to cause showers in our area late Monday night into
Tue. Dry conditions with contd unseasonably warm temps expected
Wed as flow aloft slowly backs from west to southwest ahead of
another strong trof movg across the wrn U.S.. This system expected
to cause a strong sfc low to develop over the central plains Thu
lifting slowly ne to WI/IA vcnty Friday bringing increasing
chances of showers and a few tstms along with increasing winds to
our area late week. Temps will remain much above normal ahead of
this system, but will return to normal or below as it moves across
the upr grtlks by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1220 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

VFR conditions will persist through the period with just some
mid/high clouds streaming in from upper low to the south. Slight
chance for a few diurnal CU at KFWA but near surface moisture
profiles appear too dry. LLWS will subside after sunrise.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 350 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

A prolonged period of unseasonably mild conditions is in store
through the middle of next week. Below are record daily high
maximum temperatures and record daily high minimum temperatures
for the next several days for Fort Wayne and South Bend:

Fort Wayne

Date        Record High Max Temp        Record High Min Temp

2/18          61(1994 and 1961)                42(1981)
2/19             67(1930)                  43(1981 and 1913)
2/20             67(1930)                      47(1930)

South Bend

Date        Record High Max Temp        Record High Min Temp

2/18             63(1961)                      46(1981)
2/19             65(1930)                      48(1994)
2/20          65(1983 and 1930)                46(1930)

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...AGD
CLIMATE...Marsili


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