Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 241728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
128 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Issued at 122 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

High pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue to cause
fair weather across our area tonight and Wednesday. Increasing
moisture and a warm front lifting northeast across the area will
likely cause thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Lows tonight will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s with highs Wednesday in the
lower 80s. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal
through the Memorial holiday weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 436 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Narrow/well established theta-e/instability river from ern TX to
MN arrowhead making only slow enroads eastward due to downstream
backed/weak flow. Have again played similar trend of past several
iterations to lower/delay onset of precip to only minor mention
late tonight with increased potential that strength of ridge from
Lower Ohio Valley-Lake Superior to deflect plains shortwave well
nw-n of cwa with lengthy delay in additional piecemeal energy to
eject from southern CA vortex. Again with near full insolation
today along with maturation/eastward shunt of low level thermal
plume/axis to support lower and even possibly mid 80s far sw/w
portions of cwa.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 436 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Ramping pops with instability pool over IA/IL/MO Wednesday
afternoon on order of 3000-4000 j/kg along with approach of
shortwave in deeper upstream swrly flow should
initiate/reintensify upstream convection. Timing of shortwave and
now well flattened downstream appears to favor Wed night for
greatest chances of shra/tsra at this time. As downstream
shear/instability profiles falter suspect severe risk near nil at
least with respect to this first episode. Continued blocky
nature of pattern into the holiday weekend favor persistent chance
pops per blended approach with focus on hydrological impacts and
severe potential to increase.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Southerly low level flow will cause moisture to grdly increase
through this TAF period. MOS guidance suggests this will be
sufficient to cause mvfr vsbys around daybreak Wed... hwvr
upstream obs from early this morning along with latest bufr fcst
soundings cast considerable doubt on boundary layer saturation, so
for now kept fcst vsbys vfr. Do expect sufficient low level
moisture/instability to cause sct cu development by midday Wed.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Murphy

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