Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 300503
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
103 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY SOME SUNSHINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 300MB JET STREAK THAT
HELPED SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY
WILL MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA THIS EVENING....THOUGH IT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
500MB TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER OUR NORTHWEST NOW...AND WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES SUNDAY MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE
ALSO DIMINISHES GRADUALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IA SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE PER PWATS OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES
AND 500-700MB RH COLLOCATED WITH BEST RADAR RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFTING EASTWARD
AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BETTER FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE
EXIT THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...RECENT/ONGOING RAINFALL...AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...ADDED IN PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUST PRIOR TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE DIMINISHING 500MB TROUGH. EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG TO DIMINISH BY MID-LATE MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF FORCING. DESPITE THIS...SOME MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
KEPT LOWER END-CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S AND LOW
80S...COOLEST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT
OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SITUATED OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
WEAKENS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE OH
VALLEY. BY TUE AN UPPER SHORT WAVE LIFTS NEWD INTO THE GTLKS REGION
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE GTLKS REGION BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TUE/WED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING BEING THE MORE
PRONOUNCED PERIODS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. THU THE RIDGE AXIS REDEVELOPS
WEST OF INDIANA ALLOWING FOR IMPULSES TO DROP SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER
GTLKS. THIS WILL CONT AFTN PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK ASCENT PRESENT
THROUGH FRI. STRONG INSTABILITY ISN`T EXPECTED SO GENERAL AFTN
SCATTERED TSTMS AGAIN. THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP
SHOULD PRECLUDE TEMPS BREAKING 90 SO CONT MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KSBN NEAR DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY. LIGHT WINDS/MOIST LOW
LEVELS NEAR THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH
IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER) WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KFWA THROUGH APPROXIMATELY  08-09Z AS SUBTLE
VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROPAGATES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE TIMES OF MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING
HERE...WITH A SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK MOST LIKELY BTW 3-7 KFT FOR MOST
OF THE TAF CYCLE.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS...BUT
COVERAGE/CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW ATTM FOR A SHRA/VCTS MENTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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