000
FXUS63 KIWX 222352
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
752 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain showers Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms
  near MI/IN border.

- Frost along with near or sub-freezing temperatures Thursday
  morning.

- Warm temperatures this weekend along with showers/thunderstorms
  and gusty southerly winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Pleasant remainder of the afternoon is on tap with dry/breezy
southwest winds around 15 mph with higher gusts, and high
temperatures in the mid 60s. Be mindful with open flames around any
fine fuels that might have dried out, as the breezy and dry airmass
will help to carry fire quicker.

Our next round of precipitation arrives late tonight into Tuesday
out ahead of an upper level trough swinging through the Great Lakes
region. The greatest axis of heaviest rainfall appears to be along
and south of US-30 where up to 3/4 of an inch is possible.
Elsewhere, 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch can be anticipated. HREF shows an
axis of SBCAPE along and north of the Indiana Toll Road, so have
added slight thunder chances here Tuesday afternoon/evening.


Post-frontal surface high pressure builds in Wed-Thu with cool
temperatures and mostly clear skies. Areas of frost and even some
sub-freezing temperatures will be possible Thursday morning. A
significant pattern changes arrives by Friday and Saturday as warm
air advection spreads deep moisture out ahead of a phased low-
pressure system ejecting out of the Central/Northern Plains. PWATs
around 1.5 inches will support adequate rainfall rates/amounts to
result is some possible hydro concerns. Other than the threat from
thunderstorms and it`s associated gusty winds, by Saturday, gradient
driven southerly winds of 20-25 mph with gusts 35-40 mph will
create issues for outdoor events that might have tents or
canopies set up. It`ll also be noticeably warmer, with afternoon
highs climbing well into the 70s for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 748 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Predominantly VFR to MVFR for the TAF period, with potential for
brief drops to IFR Tuesday afternoon (Best chance at KFWA). A
front will move through, bringing chances for rain showers
through the day Tuesday. A few thunderstorms are possible, but
confidence is low so left out of the TAF for now. The front will
pass KSBN first (earlier morning), then drift towards KFWA for
the afternoon/evening. Southwest winds will shift north just
beyond the TAF period for KSBN, with some LLWS (marginal) at
both terminals later tonight.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...MCD