Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 150258
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1058 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to be a
  threat into the early evening hours south of US 24. Large hail
  appears to be the primary threat.

- Mostly dry Friday through the middle of next week.

- Turning colder Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The watch has been dropped and severe storms, by and large, are
done. Will save a few PoPs southeast of US-24 as a boundary
appears to be stalled across those areas yet, but expect that to
be done by 6z/2am at the latest. Precipitation is done across
the area after that until Saturday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

One last round of thunderstorms is expected to develop rapidly
this afternoon as skies clear and conditions destabilize
rapidly behind the previous line of storms that had moved east
out of the area. Surface based CAPE at 3pm EDT had risen to
between 1500 to 2000 J/Kg near Monticello where skies had
cleared. Widespread rainfall amounts since midnight had left
water encroaching or partly covering many roads as well has
standing in many fields. Have issued a Special Weather Statement
earlier to address these concerns. Ft Wayne received the most
daily rainfall in over a year (2.11") so far and is vulnerable
for more advisory type flooding if new storm development is over
their area and other areas which received heavy rain. An
Elevated Mixed Layer reflected in lapse rates of 7.0 to 7.7 C/Km
was present per SPC mesoanalysis reaching from most of IL to
the southwest corner of the forecast area near Monticello.
Concern for tornados with initial storm environment favoring
high wind shear in the lower/boundary layer, so mentioned this
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook Product.

Otherwise, storms will move rapidly south out of the area by
mid to late evening. Condition- One last round of thunderstorms
is expected to develop rapidly this afternoon from near Rochester
to Fort Wayne to Ottawa and then move south into early tonight.
Large hail, damaging winds and tornados are possible.s will
become much colder Sunday and persist through Tuesday before
milder air returns Wednesday. Little if any precipitation is
expected during this period at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 653 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Convection has largely passed KFWA to the south, though will
remain in the vicinity through 00/01z with a VCTS mention.
Mainly VFR/dry otherwise into the early evening with post-
frontal MVFR (possibly a time of IFR) stratocu building in
tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Roller
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel


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