600
FXUS63 KIWX 011711
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
111 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions Wednesday and
  Thursday.

* Showers are likely (60-70%) late Thursday night into Friday.
  Isolated storms are also possible during this time with locally
  heavy rainfall the primary threat.

* There is another chance for showers Saturday afternoon into
  Saturday night (30-40%). Seasonably mild otherwise this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Mainly dry and mild conditions will be the story today into
Thursday. A mid level shortwave and associated sfc occlusion will
continue to track east-northeast near Lake Superior. This will force
a weakening cold front southeast through the area today with
somewhat breezy conditions. This front outruns any of its upper
level support with remnant mid-clouds (and possibly a few
leftover showers/sprinkles) outpacing sfc moisture returning
immediately in advance of the sfc front. Opted to hold with a
token slight chance PoP early this morning in IN/MI to account
for this isolated shower potential within the preceding low
level jet core. The front settles off to the south later today
into tonight as shortwave ridging overspreads the Great lakes
region. Warm advection then ramps back up on Thursday. This
occurs in response to the next low pressure system emerging over
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Confidence in any warm
advection showers developing is low as the main low level jet
core sets up wnw of the local area during this time. Sfc warm
front makes it up close to the MI state line by late Thursday
otherwise with highs expected to range from the low-mid 70s in
south- central MI to the low-mid 80s south of US 30.

The parent low will once again take a more northeasterly track into
south-central Canada Friday into this weekend. However, a couple of
convectively aided, smaller scale, impulses will swing through the
base of this negative height anomaly. 00z guidance remained
consistent in lifting the first wave and associated cold front
slowly through the area late Thursday night into Friday with showers
and non-zero chances for isolated storms. Good low level moisture
return (sfc dewpoints into the low 60s and 850 mb dewpoints to 11-
12C) supports higher PoPs (60-70%) and some threat for locally heavy
rainfall. Another shortwave may follow through with another round of
showers (30-40%) later Saturday into Saturday night, though
confidence is low given model timing differences and questions
regarding moisture return. The weekend into next Monday will feature
mild/seasonable conditions otherwise.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

In the wake of a cold front breezy westerly winds will gust to
around 25 kts this afternoon. Skies will remain mostly clear
through this evening, with mid and high clouds increasing on
Thursday ahead of the next weather system. Winds will diminish
overnight, then veer to the southeast by Thursday morning and
become 10-15 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Cobb