Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 252359
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
759 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy at times tonight through Tuesday. Wind gusts of 35 to 45
  mph are expected.

- Rain moves from west to east tonight. There will be break
  Tuesday morning before additional showers and storms develop.

- Cool for midweek, but warming for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

994 mb surface low over the Kansas City area will continue to
slide north-northeast through Tuesday. High clouds are plentiful
as of midday, but sun is poking through and high temperatures
have warmed well into the 60s. Relative humidity values are
falling toward 30 percent or so, but somewhat wet periods within
the past two weeks limit the overall fire weather concern for
the remainder of the day.

In addition to rainfall and the marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms on Tuesday, the primary forecast concern are wind
gusts tonight through Tuesday. No wind advisory is planned at
this time due to uncertain duration and the chance that the
highest gusts are realized in the afternoon from the marginal
risk of severe storms.

The inherited forecast advertises south-southeast wind gusts right
near 40 mph before dawn Tuesday, followed by south (becoming
southeast) gusts just over 40 mph during the day Tuesday. These
gusts are just over the 50th percentile of forecast guidance and
I`ve stayed close to this. Duration of these wind gusts is a
little uncertain. Strong wind from the low-level jet will mix
down near or just prior to dawn as rain along the occluded front
comes to an end. We ought to gradually become more mixed
through the midday hours allowing wind gusts to reach or exceed
40 mph. Then, showers and thunderstorms are still forecast to
develop over Illinois and race east, reaching northwest Indiana
in the 1 to 3 pm EDT window. Damaging wind gusts are possible
with these storms. Bulk shear will be incredibly potent (perhaps
too strong?) while instability per the HREF will be near 500
j/kg with dew points in the low-50s. Far from a slam-dunk severe
weather risk.

By Tuesday night, dry weather settles in until the weekend.
Temperatures will be seasonably cool Wednesday and Thursday, then
warming nicely into the weekend as a ridge develops over the central
states. The top of this ridge is then perhaps the highway for a
couple of disturbances to streak through, brining the chance for
rain over the weekend and into start of April.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 751 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Predominantly MVFR conditions expected at the TAF sites through
the period, with IFR conditions possible later tonight into
early Tuesday morning at KSBN. We`ll start out VFR in the warm
sector, with increasingly S-SE flow ahead of the next system. As
we decouple overnight expect gustiness to become more of a LLWS
issue, with around 45-55 knots expected at both sites. We`ll
mix out into the daytime hours tomorrow, so gusts up to around
40 knots could be possible. First round of rain will be late
tonight into Tuesday morning, then a break with potentially
low-end MVFR (maybe even IFR) ceilings possible behind the
initial wave. Then as the cold front moves through in the
afternoon we`ll see another line of showers, this time with
potential for some strong-severe storms. Added VCTS around 18z
per most of model guidance at KSBN, and closer to 20z for KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.
     Gale Watch from 4 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...MCD


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