Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIWX 301837
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
237 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW DAYS OF MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HANDFUL OF ISSUES TO DEAL WITH FOR THIS PACKAGE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COURTESY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL AS WELL AS
INCREASING HUMIDITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE AND COLD FRONT.
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN NOTED ON OBSERVATIONS BUT SO FAR
SEEM TO BE PATCHY ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. SPS ISSUED
TO HANDLE FOR NOW.

TO THE WEST...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO SCOOT SLOWLY EAST INTO FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY TAKE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
SLOWLY EAST AND DISSIPATE TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER...AFTER 15Z
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO RAMP UP AND FRONT DRAWS CLOSER SETTING THE
STAGE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE KEPT POPS IN MID TO HIGH CHC AND FOCUSED BEST SHOT IN THE
EAST WHERE TIMING OF FRONT AND DIURNAL UPTICK SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER COVERAGE. SOME CONCERN THAT STRATUS WILL HAMPER
DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION MIXING OUT DESPITE
LIMITED SUNSHINE. SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY SMALL HAIL OR LOCAL STRONGER WIND GUST AS WELL AS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT
ANY ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


SERIES OF SHRTWV`S OVER SWRN CANADA/NE PAC EXPECTED TO TOP WRN RIDGE
AND DROP SEWD INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VALLEY MID-WEEK. THIS TRACK
SHOULD RESULT IN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF
OUR CWA FOR DRY WX HERE WED-THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVG SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE GRTLKS DOMINATES. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
DRY SPELL COULD LAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE STNRY FRONT LIFTS BACK
N-NE AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO DEEP UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER GULF
OF ALASKA MOVG EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW
MAINTAINED LOW CHC POPS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH BETTER CHC
MONDAY AS THE CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST. WITH FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND NE FLOW
DOMINATING... EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK... WITH WAA RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND TO SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT WAVE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. KIWX RADAR INDICATED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
MOVED EAST OF BOTH TAF SITES WHILE VIS SAT SHOWS AREA OF CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UP UNTIL
ISSUANCE TIME BUT THINKING NOW IS THAT KSBN WILL SCATTER OUT BY 18Z
AND KFWA NOT LONG AFTER. THAT LEAVES MAIN ISSUE THIS CYCLE OF
OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. BOTH SITES WENT DOWN TO LIFR
LAST NIGHT AND WITH ADDL RAINFALL THIS MORNING...MID LEVEL DRYING
WORKING IN TONIGHT...AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT A REPEAT AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING JUST ABOVE AIRPORT MINIMUMS ATTM.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JAL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.