Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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919 FXUS63 KIWX 071727 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 127 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are likely mid afternoon into mid evening. The primary threat with any severe storms that occur include damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Confidence is high. - Isolated strong to severe storms are possible again Wednesday evening, mainly south of US 24. Localized heavy rain and flooding is the primary threat but a few storms could contain hail. Confidence is low. - Cooler with chances for showers later this week into the weekend. Highs Friday into Sunday will be in the 60s. Otherwise temperatures will warm back into the mid 60s to mid 70s next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Post convective outflow bubble from this morning sharpening effective warm frontal zone from nrn IL esewd through cntrl IN and into wrn OH. This will mix further north into evening over nrn IN and will yield a certain tornado risk given enlarging low level shear across this boundary. Otherwise growing instability wedge across the warm sector back west is primed to initiate convection along/ahead of cold front pushing through wrn IL attm with additional isolated storms out in front through the warm sector also possible late this afternoon. Given degree of expected instability in combo with enhancing deep layer shear supercells are likely with primary sig hail risk and attendant enhanced tor risk with discrete storms interacting with the warm front. Storms clear quickly far east by mid evening and then quiet overnight within post cold frontal bubble. This is short lived however as nrn plains upper flow wobbles east into the midwest Wed and induces new sfc frontal wave across the mid MS valley. While track of this is expected to hold south fairly robust warm advection aloft expected to spread as far north as the US 24 corridor with localized heavy rain far south Wed evening and perhaps some marginal hail risk with stronger storms. Thereafter elongating upper trough hangs back through the srn lakes with a risk for showers at times through Saturday along with quite cool temps. Upper pattern breaks back warmer yet continued unsettled longer term by mid next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 601 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Spotty MVFR cigs will likely linger in the vicinity of the terminals this morning as moisture begins to stream northward in advance of a warm front. This warm front will lift into northern IN late this morning and afternoon with a couple rounds of convection expected. The first will be associated with a decaying line of convection that will track through from west to east late this morning into the early afternoon. Moisture advection in advance should allow cigs to range in the MVFR to low VFR with an hour or two of showers and embedded thunder expected. Greater concern is for a round of more vigorous surface based convection mid-late afternoon as instability increases just in time for a MCV to track through with scattered strong-severe storms. VFR/dry otherwise into tonight behind this feature. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...T AVIATION...Steinwedel