Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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349
FXUS63 KIWX 242242
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
642 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A cold front over the upper midwest will move southeast across our
area tonight and Sunday. Increased southwest winds ahead of the
front will re-enforce the hot humid conditions across the area
today with highs expected around 90 and maximum heat index
readings around 100. Scattered thunderstorms are possible along
and ahead of the cold front through Monday. Fair weather with a
little cooler temperatures and less humidity is expected behind
the front Tuesday and Wednesday as a high pressure system moves
east across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Clouds continue to linger over NE corner of the CWA this
afternoon in the wake of multiple convective complexes that moved
across Michigan earlier. Southwest CWA has remained relatively
cloud-free and has become increasingly unstable as surface based
CAPEs have reached over 4000J/kg. Surface analysis has low
pressure centered over western Ontario with cold front extending
down through the mid/upper MS valleys and trailing back to frontal
wave in the plains. Surface low will move eastward across Ontario
and bring cold front to our western CWA this evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected as front moves through
as decent mass convergence along front will act on unstable warm
sector. Severe threat will be limited in a weakly sheared
environment as upper support remains detached to the north...but
remnant outflow boundary from earlier convection may serve as a
focus for stronger storms as front moves in. Cold front expected
to move through much of the CWA overnight...but may linger over
southern CWA into Monday morning as it takes on a slight E-W
orientation. Surface high pressure will then build into the region
providing a break from the heat and humidity mid week. Upper flow
becoming more zonal bringing temps back close to normal with highs
in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Zonal flow will have a series of weak disturbances moving across
the area and combine with stalled surface frontal boundary to
bring multiple chances for precip. Low confidence pattern as
models struggle to agree on timing/placement with these weaker
features. Best agreement among the medium range models is with
first short wave expected on Thursday. Beyond that model blend
yielding small chances into the weekend. Temps expected to remain
near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Strongly capped airmass over the region near surface based
subsidence overspreads norhthern indiana. While MUCAPE is
substantial 3000 to 5000 j/kg - visible satellite shows what
appears to be pronounced subsidence over the area as the
convective clouds has diminished. Convection that continues to
form along the moisture axis over wi/il border is associated with
the pronounced intability gradient...however any deep convection
continues to struggle as it drifts slowly eastward.

With this in mind...have kept the trend of the previous forecast
with no appreciable change. vfr conditions for the most
part...with isold tsra...especially along and north of US 30.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...NONE.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ004-015-016-024-
     025.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...Lewis


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