Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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840
FXUS63 KIWX 291725 CCA
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
121 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 115 pM EDT SUN May 29 2016

A weak cold front moving across the area may cause scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon...mainly east of
interstate 69. Otherwise fair weather is expected through
Memorial Day as high pressure builds in behind the front.
Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the lower to
middle 80s and lows in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Weak pre-frontal trough to push through forecast area this morning
and early afternoon effectively scouring most low level moisture as
it does. HiRes guidance seems to be picking up on this with little
indication of convection today except mid to late afternoon in the
far east where moisture looks to pool slightly as theta e maximizes.
Satellite shows clearing already working into far western Indiana at
08z with water vapor showing mid level drying. Thus pcpn chances
appear grim for western and even central areas today. Best chance
for convection will be in the east as mid level lapse rates nearing
7C/km work into NE Indiana and NW Ohio mid afternoon while sfc based
instability maximizes around 2000 j/kg. Severe potential looks low
given 0-6km bulk shear of just 20-25 knots and 0-3km shear of 15-20
knots. However...with any pockets of stronger heating and expected
CAPE, could still see a very isolated stronger updraft and potential
for a strong to severe storm...conditional on convection even
developing in our area. Will maintain low chance pops in the east
this afternoon but western areas will be dry. High temps again
tricky depending on clouds and timing of frontal boundary through
the region. Still expect max temps in the lower to middle 80s with a
run at a few upper 80s in the far east. Lows tonight will be a bit
cooler along with less humid conditions as temps drop into the lower
60s and a few upper 50s possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Surface high pressure to build into the area on Monday providing
fair and comfortable weather for Memorial Day. Models have been
hinting at a weak short wave and slight increase in mid level
moisture during the afternoon which has sparked some occasional
light QPF in various model outputs. Given drying low levels and
subsidence with high over the region prefer to keep forecast dry at
this time with maybe a modest increase in cloudiness during the
afternoon.

Surface high to drift east on Tuesday with southwest flow developing
in its wake with increasing moisture feed once again. Subtle short
wave depicted Tuesday afternoon could spark a few showers or
isolated storms went with Superblend pops but confined to central
and western areas given model bias of being too far east with pcpn
associated with lead short waves. Precipitation chances will
increase Wednesday into Wednesday night as northern stream upper low
propagates east along the Canadian border and stronger short wave
lifts through the Great Lakes. Models continue to vary with speed
and timing of this wave along with drying in its wake. Kept a slight
chance in for Friday with a secondary short wave diving through the
region. Expect low levels will be void of moisture but cooling temps
aloft and modest forcing may allow for a few showers with peak
heating if timing is right.

Will see temps transition cooler during the period with highs
trending down into the 70s and lows in the 50s by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Wk shrtwv will
move across nrn IN this aftn with an attendant diffuse sfc cdfnt.
Moderate instability has developed ahead of the front with a plume
of >2kj/kg sbcape extending from nw OH to central IN. Hires models
in decent agreement suggesting sct shra/tsra will dvlp within this
instability plume this aftn across ne IN and with convective temps
close to being reached in this area, will add vcts for the next few
hrs to the FWA taf. Brisk sw winds will grdly veer west this aftn
with gusts in the 20-25kt range, then quickly diminish this eve as
boundary layer decouples. Drier air movg in behind the front should
be sufficient to prevent any br from forming tonight.
West winds will modestly increase with diurnal heating Monday as
sct fair wx cu develop by midday.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lashley/jt
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...JT


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