Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIWX 212148
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
548 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 540 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S MONDAY TO HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE ENDING OF SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT AND
AMOUNT OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROF WAS MOVING ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT IN ADDITION TO
THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT WERE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS.
KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHEAST GIVEN THE INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. THERE WERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE
CLOUDS FORMING UNDER THE BASE OF A DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT.
ADDED SOME LAKE CLOUDS TONIGHT GIVEN A FAVORABLE FETCH AND
INCREASING DELTA T VALUES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
WITH LOWS AWAY FROM ANY LINGERING AREAS OF LAKE CLOUDS WELL DOWN
INTO THE 40S. KEPT TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VERY LITTLE TO DISCUSS WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE...TRENDING
FROM BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD. IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS DO BEGIN TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA WITH WEAK
UPPER LOW UNDERCUTTING RIDGE. NO SUPPORT FOR ADDING POPS WITH LACK
OF ANY STRONG UPPER AIR SUPPORT OR SFC TRIGGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT
MADISON TO BIG RAPIDS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT IN ADDITION TO THE
UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT WAS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. ADDED
SHOWERS IN THE SBN TAF AND EXTENDED THE MVFR CONDITIONS TO 23Z
GIVEN THE LATEST SURFACE RADAR...SATELLITE...OBS AND THE LOCATION
OF THE COLD FRONT. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE CLOUDS FORMING UNDER THE
BASE OF A DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE HELD OFF
EXTENDING LOW CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT AT SOUTH BEND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FETCH.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.