Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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936
FXUS63 KIWX 031057
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
557 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS FORMING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING MUCH
COLDER AIR TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARD FREEZING.
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

A NEW SURFACE LOW HAD FORMED OVERNIGHT ON THE TRIPLE POINT OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME COLDER AIR WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS
LOW...HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS...RECENT RAINFALL AND LACK OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION HAD ALLOWED FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY EARLIER. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...HELPING THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
THE FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER OVER AREAS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF WARSAW.

OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD BACK INTO AREA LATER TODAY.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A LIMITED LAKE FETCH...AND A DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OUTSIDE
THE CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

UPSTREAM RIDGE WITH LOW LEVEL/8H COLD POOL AT GREATEST EXTENT THU AM.
YET MOISTURE DEPTH SHALLOW AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND RELEGATED TO MICHIGAN
COUNTIES IN WESTERLY CBL FLOW. THEREAFTER MID TROP FLOW PRIMARILY
PROGRESSIVE WITH PEEL OF EPAC ENERGY COMBINED WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO POTENTIALLY DRIVE WEAK CLIPPER INTO MID MS
VLY SAT. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY SHEARS APART IN DEFERENCE TO STRONGER
MIDDLE/UPPER PLAINS HEIGHT FALLS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOLDING CHCS
IN CHECK EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GOMEX BLOCKED AND DISPARATE TIMING
AMONGST MIDDLE/LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS ALBEIT WITH A GENERALIZED LACK
OF STRONG SURFACE REFLECTIONS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST
MIXED RA/SN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW WITH POST FRONTAL CAA/NON
DIURNAL TEMP TREND MONDAY. SOME LES POTENTIAL IN SYSTEMS WAKE WITH
MID/UPR TEENS DIFFERENTIALS LIKELY...OVERALL RESPONSE THOUGH COULD
REMAIN MUTED WITH DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS GREAT LAKES AS
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS DOMINATES DYS7-8.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

A NEW SURFACE HAD FORMED ON THE TRIPLE POINT OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. SOME COLDER AIR WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER...THE LIGHT WINDS...RECENT RAINFALL AND LACK OF DRY
AIR ADVECTION HAD ALLOWED FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. THE FOG WAS
LIFING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS DRY AIR WAS SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AT SOUTH BEND JUST AFTER THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TODAY
BEFORE MORE MVFR CIGS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>008-012>017-020-022>024.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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