Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 251838
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
238 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

A weak trough moving through an unstable airmass over our area
tonight is expected to cause scattered showers and thunderstorms.
An upper level ridge will move into the area Thursday providing
fair weather. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s with highs
Thursday in the lower and middle 80s. It will remain warm and
humid through the Memorial Day weekend with chances for showers
and thunderstorms continuing... though most of the weekend should
be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

While ridging conts to dampen acrs the area...lack of discernible
forcing and as yet poor mstr rtn hampering any notable precip
dvlpmnt acrs the wrn lakes this aftn. MCV advg acrs nrn IA sprtg
an arc of isold-sct convn fm ern MN into ne IA and the primary ftr
of note shrt term as secondary MCV noted acrs se MO slides ewd
through srn IN/nrn KY. 12Z ILX raob alludes to a general hostile
environment aloft w/residual warm air in place although some
cooling does take place further west twd DVN ahd of apchg mid lvl
trough. Thus suspect newd advng ll theta-e ridge and wk ll flw
will fail to produce any convn this aftn and have dropped all pop
mention sans extreme west ahd of apchg mid lvl trough. Srn spoke
of btr low-mid lvl forcing shld graze nw zones this evening and
may yet sputter further se within modest theta-e ridge in place
hwvr any sense of a consensus model solution sorely lacking. As
such and in light of 12Z CAMS trends will sway fm prior likely
pops overnight as primary focus aloft shifts up acrs nrn WI.

In wake of this sys...largely subsident wrly ll flw overspreads the
area on Thu and in light of 12Z mos guidance/trends fail to see any
justification to carry a pop mention.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

General wwd positioning of large scale upr trough and attendant
sfc fntl zone points to lackluster chcs for organized rainfall
through the pd. No doubt upstream convn w/potential downstream MCS
influences complicate the picture...hwvr given stgr mean flw and
deeper ll mstr plume remains well west invof of sfc fntl zone
through the cntrl plains...it would be careless to embrace
derived blended guidance pops which are clearly way overdone. Thus
as yda will again cap any one pd to a low chc mention at this
point. More fvrbl chcs may arise twd sun aftn/eve pending ewd
extent and timing of robust wave lifting up through the midwest.

Beyond that upr ridge cntrd ovr the wrn atl xpcd to expand nwd
through dy7 and likely to cap off the local environment as new mean
troughing dvlps through the wrn US. Otrws seasonably warm and humid
conds xpcd through much of the pd.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Moderate instability has developed over nrn IL this aftn along/ahead
of a wk shrtwv/sfc trof. This system expected to move across nrn
IN tonight. With just wk instability fcst across ne IN when the
shrtwv moves through, just mentioned showers at FWA tonight, with
contd mention of tstms at SBN where instability expected to be
greater. Low level moistening overnight expected to result in
brief mvfr cigs across the area Wed morning... mixing out by
midday.


&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...JT


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