Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 231636
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1236 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

MCS WHICH FORMED ALONG CDFNT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WAS MOVG SE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF OH/IN/IL EARLY THIS MORNING...
HWVR STORMS WERE BACK-BUILDING ACROSS SRN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH
S-SE MOVEMENT BECOMING RATHER SLOW IN THIS AREA AND THERE IS ALSO
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL BEHIND THE MAIN LINE.
THUS SLOWED ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TODAY A BIT FROM PREVIOUS
FCST... SHOULD END ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THIS AFTN. OTRWS
EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE STRONG CDFNT. WITH STRONG CAA THIS MORNING... TEMPS
NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM AROUND 70 NW TO THE U70S SE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE UPR GRTLKS TONIGHT RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS IN OUR AREA. LOWERED MINS A BIT BUT LIGHT GRADIENT
WINDS SHOULD PERSIST IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVG SLOWLY SE ACROSS WI... SO LEANED TOWARD WARMER
GUIDANCE MINS IN THE M50S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MORE PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES.

MAJOR CHANGE IN UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD (AND POSSIBLY BEYOND). STRONG CLOSED LOW
WELL ADVERTISED BY GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/GEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT CHC POPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS AND A
DECENT WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. NO SIG CHANGES TO
POPS WITH GENERALLY MID RANGE CHC POPS WARRANTED AT THIS STAGE. A
ROUGHLY 550 DM UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO EAST OF JAMES BAY BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL AID IN EXTENDING THE POPS FURTHER INTO THE
EXTENDED WITH CHC POPS STILL LOOKING GOOD. FROM THIS POINT MODELS DO
DIVERGE WITH ECMWF REMAINING STRONGER AND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH
CLOSED LOW VS MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION OF GFS. WHILE BEST OPTION
WOULD NORMALLY BE TO LEAN TOWARDS ECMWF...LAST DEEPER UPPER LOW
SETUP WAS BETTER ADVERTISED BY GFS. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...CAN`T
SEE ADDING ANY MORE POPS IN MON NGT INTO TUES.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RECORD BREAKING "COLD"
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...ROLLER COASTER OF NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOKS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

SHALLOW POST FRONTAL COOLING/SATURATION UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS ALLOWED FOR A LOW MVFR STRATUS DECK TO
LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS SO FAR TODAY. DIURNAL HEATING AND DRY
ADVECTION IN DEEPENING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO RISE
ABOVE FUEL ALT AND BECOME MORE BROKEN SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE.
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW
SCT/BKN VFR STRATOCU TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS 8-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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