Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 241809
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
209 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

High pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue to cause
fair weather across our area tonight and Wednesday. Increasing
moisture and a warm front lifting northeast across the area will
likely cause thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Lows tonight will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s with highs Wednesday in the
lower 80s. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal
through the Memorial holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

While ridging sfc and aloft dampens this pd...wwd
placement of mean trough fm the nrn Rockies swwd into srn CA
suggests ltl impedes for conv forcing even though appreciable ll
mstr flux anticipated this pd. Prior grids predicated on ll
sustained theta-e advtn eventually winning out...hwvr upstream 12z
raobs indicate as yet way too much warm air aloft still present
withing decaying mid lvl ridge and no doubt manifested in successive
downward trending model pop guidance. Thus primary shrt term chg was
to sigly squash or remove the entirety of prev pops through wed aftn.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016
ltl confidence in typical progressive biased model
solutions this pd esp in light of widely disparate mos based
guidance trends. Hwvr lg scale mass flux adjustment downstream of
mean troughing present acrs the wrn US would suggest fvrbl
opportunities for precip present at some point in ltr pds.

Lead impulse acrs the cntrl plains this aftn xpcd to shear out newd
acrs the wrn lakes wed night. Mod ll mass flux within zone of
persistent waa within loosely defined sfc wmfntl zone shld fire
convn fm w-e overnight commensurate w/gross consensus signals. Otrws
renewed mid lvl ridging in wake of this sys shld also negate addnl
dvlpmnt until thu aftn pending fvrbl diurnal destabilization ahd of
potential secondary wk impulse seen in some solutions lifting out of
the srn plains.

Beyond that...pattn aloft xpcd to sharpen acrs the wrn lakes in
response to impulse embedded within srn extent of wrn trough lifting
out through the midwest sat...upstream of persistent blocking ridge
cntrd alg the east coast. Given general ll flw weakness noted here
locally and wwd placement of ejecting mid lvl wave will cap overall
extent of blended pops. Otrws warm and humid conds xpcd through much
of the pd.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Southerly low level flow will cause moisture to grdly increase
through this TAF period. MOS guidance suggests this will be
sufficient to cause mvfr vsbys around daybreak Wed... hwvr
upstream obs from early this morning along with latest bufr fcst
soundings cast considerable doubt on boundary layer saturation, so
for now kept fcst vsbys vfr. Do expect sufficient low level
moisture/instability to cause sct cu development by midday Wed.


&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...JT


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