Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 110031
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
831 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
PROVIDING MILD CONDITIONS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA...TO THE UPPER 40S FROM CENTRAL
INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

CDFNT MOVG INTO SERN PORTION OF CWA THIS EVE WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING/FOLLOWING THE FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING THIS BAND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS EVE
AS A WK SHRTWV EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR MOVES EAST ACROSS NRN IL/IN
AND SOME WK ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. THUS... HAVE UPDATED
GRIDS TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS AS THE CDFNT CROSSES THE SE PORTION
OF CWA THIS EVE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL PSBL IN THAT
AREA. OTRWS JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE MOSTLY TO LINGER HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA LONGER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH NO
LIGHTNING DETECTED. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND...
WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND
20 DEGREES AT MANY OBSERVING SITES. PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS THIS WEEKEND...WHEN THE ECMWF/GFS/FIM AGREE ON A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE SLOW MOTION COMBINED WITH VERY FAVORABLE FLOW
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD HELP ENSURE THIS IS A
VERY WET SYSTEM...WITH WPC FORECASTING A NEARLY 3 INCH SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION FROM ILLINOIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL THEREFORE LIKELY GET GREATER
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THUNDER WILL ALSO BE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AFTER THIS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SHARPLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

CDFNT WAS MOVG SE ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS EVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND
OF -SHRA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. WK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY CAUSING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO BECOME S-SW. DRY
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
TOMORROW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JT


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