Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FGUS73 KIWX 031724
ESFIWX

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1224 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

... Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 Day Probabilistic
Forecast...

This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations along the
Kankakee River Basin in northern Indiana and for the Saint
Joseph River Basin in northern Indiana and southern Michigan.

In the table below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in
the next 90 days.

For example, the Kankakee River at Davis, Indiana has a flood stage
of 10 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance the
river will rise to or above 10.5 feet.

The St. Joseph River at South Bend, Indiana has a flood stage of
5.5 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the
river will rise to or above  4.8 feet.


 Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
 ...Valid March 03 2016 - June 04 2016...

Kankakee River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Kankakee River
Davis IN            10    8.5  8.6  9.1  9.4 10.0 10.5 10.8


Yellow River
Plymouth IN         13    7.7  8.5  9.1 10.0 11.9 13.0 13.4
Knox IN             10    6.6  6.9  7.2  7.6  8.5  9.4  9.7


Saint Joseph River Michigan Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Saint Joseph River Michigan
Three Rivers MI      7    5.3  5.4  5.8  6.4  7.0  7.8  9.0
Mottville MI         8    4.7  4.8  5.2  5.8  6.5  7.2  8.3
Elkhart IN          24   20.5 20.9 21.3 21.8 22.8 23.8 24.9
South Bend IN      5.5    2.0  2.5  3.1  3.8  4.8  6.1  7.3
Niles MI            11    6.9  7.5  8.1  9.0  9.8 10.9 11.9


Elkhart River
Goshen IN            7    3.7  4.0  4.4  5.0  6.0  7.4  8.1
Cosperville IN       6    5.4  5.6  5.8  6.1  6.3  6.7  7.5


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more
years of climatological data including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete
range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with
long-range planning decisions can be determined. These
probabilistic forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather
Services Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on
AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes.

...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions...
Snow cover ranged from two to four inches across much of the
Kankakee and St. Joseph Michigan river basins with the highest
amounts in southern lower Michigan. Snow water content peaks near
0.50 inches in the lake effect regions of southwest lower Michigan.
Soil conditions remain frozen across the region down to a depth of
about four inches. With above normal temperatures in the near term,
frozen ground will thaw and allow for greater evaporation and
greater surface water infiltration. Short term crop moisture indices
were near normal.

...Weather Outlook...
The Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day outlook indicates that there
is a 40 to greater than 50 percent, or elevated, chance for above
normal precipitation and a 70 to 80 percent, or high, chance that
temperatures will be above normal values through the period. The
CPC experimental week 3 through 4 outlook indicates that there is a 55
to 60 percent, or elevated to high, chance for above normal
temperatures. There are equal chances for above, below and near normal
precipitation values for the region during this time frame. The CPC
three month outlook for the period March through May indicates elevated
chances for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation
across the region.

...River Conditions...
Area rivers were experiencing above average streamflow. Most points in
the St. joseph and Kankakee basins are experiencing streamflow in the
50th to 75th percentile. A majority of the area stream and waterways
are open with some thin shore ice. The overall potential for significant
ice formation, that could lead to ice jams and exacerbated flooding
conditions, is near zero as temperatures will warm considerably in the
near term.

...Overall Flood Risk...
Typical minor flooding, especially in more flood prone areas, remains
possible and will be highly dependent upon future precipitation events.
Given all the factors such as initial moderate streamflow conditions,
low snow water content, and an elevated chance that precipitation will
be above normal over the next couple of weeks, the overall risk for
flooding through the spring is near normal at this time.

...Flood Terminology...
The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.

The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of
secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to
save property.

The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation
and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of
people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary
roads.

$$

NG/PBM



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