Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

000
FGUS73 KIWX 292148
ESFIWX


Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
448 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

... Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 Day Probabilistic
Forecast...

This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations along the
Kankakee River Basin in northern Indiana and for the Saint
Joseph River Basin in northern Indiana and southern Michigan.

In the table below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in
the next 90 days.

For example, the Kankakee River at Davis, Indiana has a flood stage
of 10 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance the
river will rise to or above  9.6 feet.

The St. Joseph River at South Bend, Indiana has a flood stage of
5.5 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the
river will rise to or above  5.3 feet.


 Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
 ...Valid February 29 2024 - May 31 2024 ...

Kankakee River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Kankakee River
Davis IN            10    6.7  7.0  7.6  8.1  9.0  9.6 10.3


Yellow River
Plymouth IN         13    6.9  8.7  9.6 10.9 12.6 13.8 14.2
Knox IN             10    6.4  7.0  7.2  7.4  8.0  8.6  9.0


Saint Joseph River Michigan Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Saint Joseph River Michigan
Three Rivers MI      7    4.9  5.2  5.6  6.3  7.0  8.0  8.8
Mottville MI         8    4.6  4.7  5.2  5.9  6.5  7.5  8.3
Elkhart IN          24   20.4 20.7 21.4 22.2 23.0 24.5 25.5
South Bend IN      5.5    1.9  2.2  3.3  4.4  5.3  7.0  7.5
Niles MI            11    7.0  7.2  8.2  9.2 10.2 12.2 12.7


Elkhart River
Goshen IN            7    3.3  3.5  4.2  4.8  6.0  7.4  8.2
Cosperville IN       6    4.6  4.8  5.2  5.8  6.3  6.8  7.4


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more
years of climatological data including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete
range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with
long-range planning decisions can be determined. These
probabilistic forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather
Services Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on
AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes.

...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions...

Given the record breaking mild February conditions, there was no snow
cover or ice on rivers at the end of February. There have been 7 to 9
inches of rain (or melted snow equivalent) since December 1st over these basins across far southwest Lower Michigan and northwest Indiana leaving topsoil moisture near normal.

...Weather Outlook...

The generally mild pattern is favored to persist through March and into
May with equal chances for above normal or below normal precipitation.
Normal rainfall is 10 to 11 inches during this 3 month period.

...River Conditions...

River conditions were below to well below action stage Thursday
afternoon, February 29th.

...Overall Flood Risk...

Given the ongoing low river stages and given the lack of snow and ice
on rivers, the overall flood risk is below normal.


...Flood Terminology...
The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.

The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of
secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to
save property.

The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation
and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of
people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary
roads.

The next long-range probabilistic outlook will be issued on Thursday,
March 14th 2024 for the Kankakee and Saint Joseph River basins.


$$
Skip