Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FGUS73 KIWX 180940
ESFIWX
INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-091-099-103-
113-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-MIC021-023-027-059-149-OHC003-
039-051-069-125-137-161-171-190945-
ADAMS-ALLEN IN-BLACKFORD-CASS IN-DE KALB-ELKHART-FULTON IN-GRANT-
HUNTINGTON-JAY-KOSCIUSKO-LAGRANGE-LA PORTE-MARSHALL-MIAMI-NOBLE-
PULASKI-ST. JOSEPH IN-STARKE-STEUBEN-WABASH-WELLS-WHITE-WHITLEY-
BERRIEN-BRANCH-CASS MI-HILLSDALE-ST. JOSEPH MI-ALLEN OH-DEFIANCE-
FULTON OH-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-WILLIAMS-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
440 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014 /340 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014/

...INCREASED FLOOD POTENTIAL BY THURSDAY...

SEVERAL FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE AN INCREASED FLOOD RISK
STARTING LATER THIS WEEK. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND ICE CONTAIN A LARGE
QUANTITY OF STORED WATER...GENERALLY 1.5 TO 4.0 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE GREATEST WATER CONTENT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS
PERIOD HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOWMELT AND
RUNOFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL ACT
TO INCREASE THE RATE OF SNOWMELT. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
INCREASED RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW ATOP THE FROZEN GROUND MAY LEAD
TO A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS...BASEMENTS AND SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. SIGNIFICANT RISES
ALONG MAJOR STEM RIVERS COULD FOLLOW.

THESE WARMER CONDITIONS AND RUNOFF LATER IN THE WEEK WILL LEAD TO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR BREAK UP AND DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT OF THICK ICE
ON RIVERS THAT WOULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR ICE JAMS TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

FUTURE FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME...NOT A CERTAINTY.
THE SEVERITY AND TIMING OF FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL RECEIVED THURSDAY...AND THE EXACT DURATION OF WARMER
CONDITIONS...WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE
AREA...NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING. STAY
ALERT TO THE LATEST FORECASTS TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BY
VISITING WEATHER.GOV/IWX.

ADDITIONAL FLOOD AWARENESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
WEATHER.GOV/FLOODSAFETY AND READY.GOV/FLOODS

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