Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FGUS73 KIWX 211529
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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1029 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

HERE IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
MAUMEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AND FOR
THE UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA. IN THE TABLE
BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE... THE MAUMEE RIVER AT FORT WAYNE... INDIANA
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 17 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 20.3 FEET. BLUFFTON
INDIANA ON THE WABASH RIVER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO
OR ABOVE  0.0 FEET.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
        ...VALID FEBRUARY 21 2014 - MAY 25 2014...

MAUMEE RIVER BASIN...
LOCATION         FS(FT)  95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

ST. JOSEPH RIVER...
SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO
MONTPELIER OH     12.0   9.5  9.9 11.3 12.1 13.3 14.2 14.6
NEWVILLE IN       12.0   9.8 11.7 12.3 12.8 13.9 14.9 15.5
ST. JOE FT W. IN  12.0   6.3  8.0  9.3 10.5 12.0 15.2 18.3

ST. MARYS RIVER...
SAINT MARYS RIVER
DECATUR IN        17.0   9.4 11.9 14.1 16.5 18.4 20.5 21.0
MULDOON BRIDGE IN 14.0   6.1  7.2  8.7 10.4 12.6 16.0 17.6

MAUMEE RIVER...
MAUMEE RIVER
FORT WAYNE IN     17.0   9.4 11.2 13.5 14.8 18.0 20.3 22.3
DEFIANCE OH       10.0   3.9  4.5  5.1  6.2  7.5  9.2 10.7
NAPOLEON OH       12.0   0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0

TIFFIN RIVER...
TIFFIN RIVER
STRYKER OH        11.0  10.5 11.5 12.4 13.1 13.7 15.4 16.1

BLANCHARD RIVER...
BLANCHARD RIVER
OTTAWA OH         23.0  18.6 18.9 19.9 21.5 23.0 23.8 25.7

AUGLAIZE RIVER...
AUGLAIZE RIVER
FORT JENNINGS OH  13.0   6.6  7.3 10.0 12.3 13.7 15.3 16.8
DEFIANCE OH       21.0  11.2 11.9 13.6 15.4 17.8 20.4 22.4

UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN
LOCATION         FS(FT)  95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

WABASH RIVER...
WABASH RIVER
LINN GROVE        11.0   7.6  8.2  8.7  9.7 11.2 12.6 13.2
BLUFFTON IN       10.0   0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0
WABASH IN         14.0   7.9  9.1 10.4 11.5 12.8 14.4 16.9
LOGANSPORT IN     15.0   6.8  7.2  7.9  8.5  9.6 10.8 13.0

TIPPECANOE RIVER...
TIPPECANOE RIVER
ORA IN            12.0   9.1  9.4 10.5 11.6 12.4 13.5 14.9
WINAMAC IN        10.0   6.9  7.2  8.2  9.3 10.0 11.3 15.0

MISSISSINEWA RIVER...
MISSISSINEWA RIVER
MARION IN         12.0   4.1  4.5  5.9  6.6  7.8  9.8 10.9

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE... SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES... THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG
RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND
EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL IN LOWER CASE LETTERS. AHPS CAN BE FOUND
UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS/LAKES AND RIVERS AHPS.

...SNOW COVER/SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
SNOW AND ICE STILL COVER A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAINS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS HAVE HELPED TO ERODE SOME OF THE SNOWPACK...BUT IT WAS JUST
TOO DEEP TO BE COMPLETELY ELIMINATED. THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA
LARGELY REMAINS FROZEN. THIS MEANS THAT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL
SIMPLY RUNOFF RATHER THAN SOAKING INTO THE GROUND. THIS EFFICIENT
RUNOFF CONDITION MEANS THAT MOST...OF NOT ALL...SNOWMELT OR RAIN WILL
SIMPLY RUN OFF INTO AREA WATERWAYS.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS INDICATES THAT THERE IS
AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO ALSO BE BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RISE AS A RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND
MELTING SNOW. A MAJORITY OF THE AREA STREAMS AND WATERWAYS ARE
FROZEN OR ONLY PARTIALLY OPEN. AS THE RIVERS RISE...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE ICE COULD BREAK APART AND BEGIN TO FLOW DOWNSTREAM. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR ICE DAMMING. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO
PILE UP BEHIND THE JAM AND CAUSE UPSTREAM FLOODING. ICE JAMS CAN
RELEASE QUICKLY AND ALLOW LARGE QUANTITIES OF WATER TO FLOW DOWNSTREAM
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WHICH CAN CAUSE FLOODING DOWNSTREAM.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER...SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY
TO SAVE PROPERTY.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND
PROPERTY DAMAGE USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE
AND LIVESTOCK AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY AND UPDATED
AS NEEDED FOR THE MAUMEE AND UPPER WABASH RIVER BASINS.

$$



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