Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FGUS73 KIWX 022257
ESFIWX

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
555 PM EST THU MAR 2 2017

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 day Probabilistic
Forecast...

This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations in the
Maumee River basin in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio and for
the Upper Wabash River basin in northern Indiana. In the table
below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the chance the
river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in the next
90 days.

For example, the Maumee River at Fort Wayne, Indiana has a flood
stage of 17 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance
the river will rise to or above 18.4 feet.

Bluffton, Indiana on the Wabash River has a flood stage of 10 feet.
In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the river will rise
to or above 11.4 feet.


Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
...Valid March 7, 2017 - June 5, 2017...

Maumee River Basin...
Location FS(ft)            95%  90%  75%  50% 25%  10%   5%

Saint Joseph River Ohio

Montpelier OH    12.0     8.5  9.6 10.4 11.8 12.7 13.8 14.9
Newville IN      12.0     8.8  9.7 11.8 12.5 13.5 14.6 15.3
St. Joe Ft W. IN 12.0     3.9  4.9  7.3  8.9 10.8 14.5 16.0


Saint Marys River

Decatur IN        17.0    9.0 11.0 13.7 15.3 17.1 20.2 20.7
Muldoon Bridge IN 14.0    5.6  6.7  8.3  9.7 10.8 16.0 16.9


Maumee River

Fort Wayne IN     17.0    7.3  8.2 11.8 14.3 17.0 18.4 20.5
Defiance OH       10.0    3.2  4.0  5.0  6.1  7.0  8.7  9.5
Napoleon OH       12.0    4.4  5.8  7.7  9.5 11.3 13.3 14.0


Tiffin River

Stryker OH        11.0     9.2 10.6 12.1 13.2 14.1 15.6 16.5


Blanchard River

Ottawa OH         23.0    17.6 18.0 20.7 22.9 24.4 25.4 25.8


Auglaize River

Fort Jennings OH  13.0     5.0  6.2  8.1 10.8 13.0 15.1 15.8
Defiance OH       21.0    10.3 11.4 13.2 15.4 17.0 20.4 20.9


Upper Wabash River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)    95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Wabash River

Linn Grove IN    11.0      7.6  8.2  9.1 10.3 11.4 12.6 12.8
Bluffton IN      10.0      6.0  6.9  8.1 10.0 11.4 12.9 13.7
Wabash IN         4.0      8.1  8.7 10.0 11.0 12.2 13.6 14.6
Logansport IN    15.0      6.1  6.9  8.0  8.5  9.5 10.6 10.8

Tippecanoe River

Ora IN            12.0     8.3  9.1  9.8 10.9 11.9 12.7 13.8
Winamac IN        10.0     6.2  6.9  7.5  8.4  9.4 10.2 11.8


Mississinewa River

Marion IN         12.0     3.1  3.9  4.8  5.8  6.9  8.5  9.5


Eel River

N. Manchester IN  9.0      7.4  8.6  9.7 10.7 12.3 14.2 15.0


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more
years of climatological data including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete
range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long
range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather Services Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on
AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes.

...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions...

Snow cover was absent across the Maumee and Upper Wabash river
basins. Soil conditions remain thawed across the region as well.
With above normal temperatures in the near term, the ground will
remain thawed with no snow cover. This will allow for greater
evaporation and surface water infiltration. Short term crop moisture
indices were near normal across the Maumee and Upper Wabash river
basins.

...Weather Outlook...

The Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day outlook indicates that
there is a 40 to 50 percent, or elevated, chance for above normal
precipitation and a 60 to 70 percent, or high, chance that
temperatures will be above normal values through the period. The CPC
experimental week 3 through 4 outlook indicates that there no
significant signal with respect to temperatures with equal chances
for above, below and near normal temperatures. There is a signal
favoring below normal normal precipitation for the region during
this timeframe. The CPC three month outlook for the period March
through May indicates elevated chances for above normal temperatures
and equal chances for above, below and near normal precipitation
across the region.

...River Conditions...

Area rivers were experiencing above average streamflow. Most points
in the Maumee and Upper Wabash basins are experiencing streamflow in
the 60th to 80th percentile. All of the area stream and waterways
are open with no ice observed. The overall potential for significant
ice formation, that could lead to ice jams and exacerbated flooding
conditions, is near zero as temperatures will warm considerably in
the near term.

...Overall Flood Risk...

Typical minor flooding, especially in more flood prone areas, remains
possible and will be highly dependent upon future precipitation
events. Given all the factors such as initial moderate to high
streamflow conditions, lack of snow water content, and no
significant signal for extraordinary precipitation over the next
couple of weeks, the overall risk for flooding through the spring is
near normal at this time.

...Flood Terminology...

The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.

The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of
secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to
save property.

The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation
and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of
people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary
roads.

$$

PBM



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