Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FGUS73 KIWX 031732
ESFIWX

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1232 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 day Probabilistic
Forecast...

This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations in the
Maumee River basin in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio and for
the Upper Wabash River basin in northern Indiana. In the table
below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the chance the
river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in the next
90 days.

For example, the Maumee River at Fort Wayne, Indiana has a flood
stage of 17 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance
the river will rise to or above 18.2 feet.

Bluffton, Indiana on the Wabash River has a flood stage of 10 feet.
In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the river will rise
to or above  7.5 feet.


 Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
 ...Valid March 03, 2016 - June 06, 2016...

Maumee River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)    95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Saint Joseph River Ohio
Montpelier OH     12.0     8.3  9.3 10.4 11.6 12.5 13.5 14.8
Newville IN       12.0     9.3  9.7 11.8 12.5 13.4 14.5 15.3
St. Joe Ft W. IN  12.0     3.7  4.1  6.9  8.2  9.7 14.4 15.4


Saint Marys River
Decatur IN        17.0     9.2 11.5 14.1 15.5 17.3 20.4 20.8
Muldoon Bridge IN 14.0     5.4  7.1  8.5 10.0 11.3 16.2 17.3


Maumee River
Fort Wayne IN     17.0     6.6  8.0 11.9 14.2 16.8 18.2 20.4
Defiance OH       10.0     3.2  3.8  4.9  5.9  6.7  8.5  9.4
Napoleon OH       12.0     4.3  5.7  7.6  9.2 11.0 13.1 13.9


Tiffin River
Stryker OH        11.0     7.8  9.5 12.4 13.3 14.3 15.8 16.7


Blanchard River
Ottawa OH         23.0    17.5 18.0 20.3 22.5 24.4 25.4 25.8


Auglaize River
Fort Jennings OH  13.0     5.8  7.2  8.6 11.7 13.4 15.4 16.1
Defiance OH       21.0    10.4 11.0 13.1 15.4 17.1 20.4 20.9


Upper Wabash River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)    95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Wabash River
Linn Grove IN     11.0     5.3  5.8  6.5  7.4  8.4  9.8 11.6
Bluffton IN       10.0     3.6  4.4  5.2  6.4  7.5  9.3 11.4
Wabash IN         14.0     6.3  8.4  9.6 10.6 12.1 13.4 14.5
Logansport IN     15.0     5.8  6.7  7.7  8.3  9.4 10.5 10.8


Tippecanoe River
Ora IN            12.0     8.8  9.2 10.1 11.3 12.5 13.2 14.3
Winamac IN        10.0     6.8  7.1  8.0  8.9 10.0 10.7 12.8


Mississinewa River
Marion IN         12.0     3.0  3.6  4.7  5.7  6.7  8.3  9.4


Eel River
N. Manchester IN   9.0     6.2  8.0  9.3 10.4 11.9 13.9 14.6


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more
years of climatological data including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete
range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long
range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather Services Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on
AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes.

...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions...
Snow cover ranged from one to two inches across much of the
Maumee and Upper Wabash river basins with the highest. Snow water
content peaks near 0.25 inches in the northern part of the basin
in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. Soil conditions remain frozen
across the region down to a depth of two to four inches. With above
normal temperatures in the near term, frozen ground will thaw and allow
for greater evaporation and greater surface water infiltration. Short
term crop moisture indices were near normal to abnormally moist, with
the wettest regions across the Maumee river basin in northwest Ohio and
the southern portion of the Upper Wabash river basin in Indiana.

...Weather Outlook...
The Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day outlook indicates that there
is a 40 to greater than 50 percent, or elevated, chance for above
normal precipitation and a 70 to 80 percent, or high, chance that
temperatures will be above normal values through the period. The
CPC experimental week 3 through 4 outlook indicates that there is a 55
to 60 percent, or elevated to high, chance for above normal
temperatures. There are equal chances for above, below and near normal
precipitation values for the region during this time frame. The CPC
three month outlook for the period March through May indicates elevated
chances for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation
across the region.

...River Conditions...
Area rivers were experiencing above average streamflow. Most points in
the Maumee and Upper Wabash basins are experiencing streamflow in the
60th to 80th percentile. A majority of the area stream and waterways
are open with some thin shore ice. The overall potential for significant
ice formation, that could lead to ice jams and exacerbated flooding
conditions, is near zero as temperatures will warm considerably in the
near term.

...Overall Flood Risk...
Typical minor flooding, especially in more flood prone areas, remains
possible and will be highly dependent upon future precipitation events.
Given all the factors such as initial moderate streamflow conditions,
low snow water content, and an elevated chance that precipitation will
be above normal over the next couple of weeks, the overall risk for
flooding through the spring is near normal at this time.

...Flood Terminology...
The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.

The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of
secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to
save property.

The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation
and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of
people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary
roads.

$$

NG/PBM



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