Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FGUS73 KIWX 211525
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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1025 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

HERE IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE
KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND FOR THE SAINT
JOSEPH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.

IN THE TABLE BELOW THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE... THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT DAVIS...
INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS
A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 13.6 FEET.
ST. JOSEPH RIVER AT SOUTH BEND... INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5.5
FEET.  IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE  9.9 FEET.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
        ...VALID FEBRUARY 21 2014 - M     ...

LOCATION   FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
KANKAKEE RIVER
DAVIS IN       10 11.1    M    M    M 12.3    M    M    M 13.6

YELLOW RIVER
PLYMOUTH IN    13 11.2    M    M    M 13.8    M    M    M 15.8
KNOX IN        10  8.7    M    M    M 10.3    M    M    M 12.0

SAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN
THREE RVRS MI   7  7.3    M    M    M  8.4    M    M    M 10.4
MOTTVILLE MI    8  6.7    M    M    M  7.8    M    M    M  9.6
ELKHART IN     24 23.1    M    M    M 24.3    M    M    M 26.7
SOUTH BEND IN 5.5  5.2    M    M    M  6.8    M    M    M  9.9
NILES MI       11 10.1    M    M    M 11.5    M    M    M 14.2

ELKHART RIVER
GOSHEN IN       7  6.0    M    M    M  7.5    M    M    M  9.8

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE... SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES... THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH
LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

...SNOW COVER/SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
SNOW AND ICE STILL COVER A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAINS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS HAVE HELPED TO ERODE SOME OF THE SNOWPACK...BUT IT WAS JUST
TOO DEEP TO BE COMPLETELY ELIMINATED. THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA
LARGELY REMAINS FROZEN. THIS MEANS THAT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL
SIMPLY RUNOFF RATHER THAN SOAKING INTO THE GROUND. THIS EFFICIENT
RUNOFF CONDITION MEANS THAT MOST...OF NOT ALL...SNOWMELT OR RAIN WILL
SIMPLY RUN OFF INTO AREA WATERWAYS.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS INDICATES THAT THERE IS
AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO ALSO BE BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RISE AS A RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND
MELTING SNOW. A MAJORITY OF THE AREA STREAMS AND WATERWAYS ARE
FROZEN OR ONLY PARTIALLY OPEN. AS THE RIVERS RISE...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE ICE COULD BREAK APART AND BEGIN TO FLOW DOWNSTREAM. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR ICE DAMMING. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO
PILE UP BEHIND THE JAM AND CAUSE UPSTREAM FLOODING. ICE JAMS CAN
RELEASE QUICKLY AND ALLOW LARGE QUANTITIES OF WATER TO FLOW DOWNSTREAM
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WHICH CAN CAUSE FLOODING DOWNSTREAM.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER...SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY
TO SAVE PROPERTY.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND
PROPERTY DAMAGE USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE
AND LIVESTOCK AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON
THE INTERNET AT:WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IWX... INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL
IN LOWER CASE. AHPS CAN BE FOUND UNDER... CURRENT CONDITIONS/LAKES
AND RIVERS AHPS.

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EACH MONTH
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR... WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

$$





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