Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
839 FGUS73 KIWX 142042 ESFIWX Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Northern Indiana 442 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 ... Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 Day Probabilistic Forecast... This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations along the Kankakee River Basin in northern Indiana and for the Saint Joseph River Basin in northern Indiana and southern Michigan. In the table below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. For example, the Kankakee River at Davis, Indiana has a flood stage of 10 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance the river will rise to or above 9.5 feet. The St. Joseph River at South Bend, Indiana has a flood stage of 5.5 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the river will rise to or above 5.3 feet. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations ...Valid March 14 2024 - May 31 2024... Kankakee River Basin... Location FS(ft) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% Kankakee River Davis IN 10 6.9 7.0 7.4 8.1 8.9 9.5 10.0 Yellow River Plymouth IN 13 7.1 8.2 9.5 10.8 12.3 13.6 13.9 Knox IN 10 6.5 6.7 7.2 7.4 7.9 8.4 8.8 Saint Joseph River Michigan Basin... Location FS(ft) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% Saint Joseph River Michigan Three Rivers MI 7 5.0 5.3 5.6 6.4 7.1 7.7 8.6 Mottville MI 8 4.6 4.8 5.3 5.9 6.6 7.1 7.9 Elkhart IN 24 20.4 20.8 21.4 22.1 22.8 24.1 25.3 South Bend IN 5.5 2.0 2.4 3.4 4.4 5.3 6.7 7.5 Niles MI 11 7.0 7.4 8.3 9.2 10.2 11.9 12.8 Elkhart River Goshen IN 7 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.8 5.9 7.2 8.0 Cosperville IN 6 4.6 4.6 5.0 5.6 6.2 6.7 7.3 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data including current conditions of the river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather Services Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Additional supportive data and explanations are available on AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes. ...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions... Given the record to near record breaking mild condtions with highs in the 70s last week, no snow cover or ice on rivers was present. Precipitation amounts during the past 60 days have been above normal with calculated soil moisture increasing with values today rising above normal with the additional rainfall today. ...Weather Outlook... The overal mild weather is expected to persist, although ENSO conditions are forecast to rapidly transition to a La Nina pattern by mid to late summer, favoring a more active pattern. Rainfall at time through the end of May is expected to be near the normal amounts near 9 inches. ...River Conditions... At the onset, rivers were near or below action stage along the St Joseph River and Kankakee Rivers in northwest Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan. ...Overall Flood Risk... Given the moist soil state with recent rainfall, the overall flood risk is expected to be near normal into May. ...Flood Terminology... The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible. The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to save property. The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary roads. The next long-range probabilistic outlook will be issued in ini February of 2025 for the Kankakee and Saint Joseph River basins. $$