Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FGUS73 KIWX 191113
ESFIWX
INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-091-099-103-
113-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-MIC021-023-027-059-149-OHC003-
039-051-069-125-137-161-171-200000-
ADAMS-ALLEN IN-BLACKFORD-CASS IN-DE KALB-ELKHART-FULTON IN-GRANT-
HUNTINGTON-JAY-KOSCIUSKO-LAGRANGE-LA PORTE-MARSHALL-MIAMI-NOBLE-
PULASKI-ST. JOSEPH IN-STARKE-STEUBEN-WABASH-WELLS-WHITE-WHITLEY-
BERRIEN-BRANCH-CASS MI-HILLSDALE-ST. JOSEPH MI-ALLEN OH-DEFIANCE-
FULTON OH-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-WILLIAMS-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
613 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014 /513 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014/

...FLOOD POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR THURSDAY...

SEVERAL FACTORS LOOK TO COMBINE TO CREATE AN INCREASED FLOOD RISK
FROM THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND ICE CONTAIN A
LARGE QUANTITY OF STORED WATER...GENERALLY 1.5 TO 4.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST WATER CONTENT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

MELTING HAS BEGUN WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT TODAY AS AFTERNOON
HIGHS RISING WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WHICH IN TANDEM WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL YIELD INCREASING AGGREGATE RUNOFF ATOP FROZEN GROUND AND LEAD
TO A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS...BASEMENTS AND SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. SIGNIFICANT RISES
ALONG MAIN STEM RIVERS MAY FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...INCREASED RUNOFF AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO
A BREAKUP AND DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT OF THICK RIVER ICE...INCREASING
THE RISK FOR ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE LOCAL FLOODING POTENTIAL ON SOME AREA RIVERS.

THE THREAT FOR FLOODING APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN MANY
AREAS...BUT IS NOT CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. THE SEVERITY AND
TIMING OF FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL RECEIVED
THURSDAY...AND THE EXACT DURATION OF WARMER CONDITIONS...WHICH
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...NOW IS THE
TIME TO PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING. STAY ALERT TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BY VISITING
WEATHER.GOV/IWX.

ADDITIONAL FLOOD AWARENESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
WEATHER.GOV/FLOODSAFETY AND READY.GOV/FLOODS

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